Evaluando el pensamiento probabilístico temprano en la infancia (4-5 años)

• Malaspina, Martín ^[1] ; Alsina, Ángel ^[2] ; Maurandi-López, Antonio ^[3]
  1. [1] Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú

     Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú

     Perú

     
  2. [2] Universitat de Girona

     Universitat de Girona

     Gerona, España

     
  3. [3] Universidad de Murcia

     Universidad de Murcia

     Murcia, España

     

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• Localización: PNA: Revista de investigación en didáctica de la matemática, ISSN-e 1887-3987, Vol. 20, Nº. 2, 2026 (Ejemplar dedicado a: (January, 2026)), págs. 99-121
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.30827/pna.v20i2.33404
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Avaliação do pensamento probabilístico precoce na infância (4-5 anos)
  • Assessing early probabilistic thinking in children (4 - 5 years)
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    Estimular el pensamiento probabilístico desde la infancia es esencial para la alfabetización probabilística de la ciudadanía. Sin embargo, existen escasas herramientas para medir su desarrollo en edades tempranas. Este estudio propone un instrumento para evaluar el pensamiento probabilístico en la infancia (4-5 años), considerando fenómenos aleatorios, lenguaje probabilístico y probabilidad de un evento. Mediante un enfoque cualitativo, se construyeron ítems, se realizaron estudios piloto y un proceso de juicio de expertos, generando evidencias de validez sobre su pertinencia y funcionalidad. Los resultados aportan al diseño de herramientas evaluativas que promuevan el aprendizaje matemático temprano aprovechando las intuiciones probabilísticas infantiles.

  • English

    Stimulating probabilistic thinking from childhood is essential for the probabilistic literacy of citizens. However, there are few tools to measure its development at early ages. This study proposes an instrument to assess probabilistic thinking in children (4-5 years), considering random phenomena, probabilistic language and probability of an event. Using a qualitative approach, items were constructed, pilot studies were conducted and a process of expert judgment was carried out, generating evidence of validity regarding its relevance and functionality. The results contribute to the design of assessment tools that promote early mathematical learning by taking advantage of children's probabilistic intuitions.

  • português

    Estimular o pensamento probabilístico desde a infância é essencial para a literacia probabilística dos cidadãos. No entanto, existem poucos instrumentos para medir o seu desenvolvimento numa idade precoce. Este estudo propõe um instrumento para avaliar o pensamento probabilístico em crianças (4-5 anos), considerando os fenómenos aleatórios, a linguagem probabilística e a probabilidade de um acontecimento. Utilizando uma abordagem qualitativa, foram construídos itens, realizados estudos-piloto e um processo de julgamento de especialistas, gerando evidências de validade quanto à sua relevância e funcionalidade. Os resultados contribuem para a conceção de instrumentos de avaliação que promovam a aprendizagem matemática precoce, tirando partido das intuições probabilísticas das crianças.

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