Mathematical models for the study of Zika diffusion with exposed state and delay

• Delgado Moya, Erick Manuel ^[1]
  1. [1] IME-University of Sao Paulo, Rua do Matao, 1010- CEP 05508-090- Sao Paulo-SP, Brazil
• Localización: Selecciones Matemáticas, ISSN-e 2411-1783, Vol. 7, Nº. 2, 2020 (Ejemplar dedicado a: August - December), págs. 192-201
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.17268/sel.mat.2020.02.01
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Modelos matemáticos para el estudio de la difusión del Zika con estado expuesto y retardo
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    El virus del Zika se propaga a las personas principalmente a través de la picadura de un mosquito de la especie Aedes Aegypti infectado. El Zika también puede transmitirse a través del sexo de una persona infectada a sus parejas sexuales y se puede transmitir de una mujer embarazada a su feto. El Zika continúa expandiéndose geográficamente a áreas donde están presentes vectores competentes. Si bien se ha informado una disminución en los casos de infección por el virus del Zika en algunos países o en algunas partes de los países, la vigilancia debe mantenerse alta. En este trabajo, presentamos dos modelos matemáticos para la epidemia del Zika mediante el uso de (1) ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias con estado expuesto y, (2) ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias con retardo (discreto), que es el tiempo que tardan los mosquitos en desarrollar el virus. Hacemos una comparación entre las dos variantes de modelado. Se realizan simulaciones computacionales para Santa Ana, que es propenso a desarrollar la epidemia de manera endémica.

  • English

    Zika virus spreads to people primarily through the bite of an infected Aedes aegypti species mosquito. But it Zika can also be passed through sex from an infected to his or her sex partners and it can be spread from a pregnant woman to her fetus. Zika continues to spreading geographically to areas where competent vectors are present. Although a decline in cases of Zika virus infection has been reported in some countries, or in some parts of countries, vigilance needs to remain high. In this work, we present two mathematical models for the Zika diffusion by using (1) ordinary differential equations with exposed state and, (2) ordinary differential equations with delay (discrete), which is the time it takes mosquitoes to develop the virus. We make a comparison between the two modeling variants. Computational simulations is performed for Santa Ana, which is that is prone to develop the epidemic in an endemic manner.

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