Mathematical models for Zika with exposed variables and delay. Comparison and experimentation in Suriname and El Salvador

• Delgado Moya, Erick Manuel ^[1] ; Marrero Severo, Aymee ^[2]
  1. [1] Universidade de São Paulo

     Universidade de São Paulo

     Brasil

     
  2. [2] MATCOM, University of Habana, San Lázaro y L. Edificio Felipe Poey. Plaza de la Revolución, La Habana
• Localización: Selecciones Matemáticas, ISSN-e 2411-1783, Vol. 6, Nº. 1 (Enero-Julio), 2019, págs. 1-13
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.17268/sel.mat.2019.01.01
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Modelos Matemáticos para Zika con Variables Expuesto y retardo. Comparación y Experimentación en Surinam y El Salvador
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    El virus Zika (ZIKV) es un virus transmitido por los mosquitos Aedes aegypti (igual que el que transmite el dengue y la fiebre chikungunya). La principal forma de contagio por el ZIKV es causada por la picadura de un mosquito que, después de alimentarse de alguien contaminado, puede transportar el virus durante toda su vida y transmitir la enfermedad a una población que no tiene inmunidad. También se puede transmitir a través de la relación sexual de una persona con ZIKV a sus parejas, incluso si la persona infectada no tiene los síntomas de la enfermedad. En este trabajo, presentamos dos modelos matemáticos para la epidemia del Zika mediante el uso de (1) ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias y, (2) ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias con retardo temporal (discreto), que es el tiempo que tardan los mosquitos en desarrollar el virus. Hacemos una comparación entre las dos variantes de modelado. Se realizan simulaciones computacionales para Surinam y El Salvador, que son países propensos a desarrollar la epidemia de manera endémica.

  • English

    The Zika Virus (ZIKV) is a virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes (same as the one transmitting dengue and chikungunya fever). The main way of contagion by the ZIKV is caused by the bite of a mosquito that, after feeding from someone contaminated, can transport the virus throughout its life, transmitting the disease to a population that does not have the immunity. It can also be transmitted through a person’s sexual relationship with ZIKV to their partners, even if the infected person does not have the symptoms of the disease. In this work, we present two mathematical models for the Zika epidemic by using (1) ordinary differential equations and, (2) ordinary differential equations with temporal delay (discrete), which is the time it takes mosquitoes to develop the virus. We make a comparison between the two modeling variants. Computational simulations are performed for Suriname and El Salvador, which are countries that are prone to develop the epidemic in an endemic manner.

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