Functional prediction with Applications to the Electricity Market
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[1] Departamento de Matemáticas, Universidade da Coruña
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- Localización: XII Congreso Galego de Estatística e Investigación de Operacións: Lugo, 22-23-24 de outubro de 2015. Actas / María José Ginzo Villamayor (ed. lit.), José María Alonso Meijide (ed. lit.)
, Luis Alberto Ramil Novo (ed. lit.), 2015, ISBN 978-84-8192-522-7, págs. 121-122 - Idioma: inglés
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Resumen
A comparative study among different techniques for prediction in the Spanish Electricity Market is presented in this paper. Specifically, it deals with the problem of daily electricity demand forecasting, together with electricity price. Different functional regression methods are applied and compared with other classical methodologies for electricity data forecasting. Exogenous variables are also considered in some of the models, including weather variables and wind power production. Also combined methods are developed in order to get better prediction errors, mixing some of the best methods provided in the comparison. Results show an improvement when the forecasting is performed treating data as functional and also adding exogenous variables. .
