Memoria larga en el número de horas de vuelo de aeronave de inteligencia militar de la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana

• Autores: Diego Fernando Lemus Polanía, Harold Eraso, Maribel Tique, Andrés Eduardo Peña
• Localización: Comunicaciones en Estadística, ISSN 2027-3355, ISSN-e 2339-3076, Vol. 11, Nº. 2, 2018, págs. 239-255
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.15332/2422474x.4030
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Evidence of long memory in the number of flight hours for military intelligence aircraft in Colombian Air Force
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    Actualmente, el Departamento de Planeación y Estadística de la Fuerza AéreaColombiana (FAC) planifica el número mensual de horas de vuelo que tendrá cadauna de sus aeronaves mediante el promedio de las horas que estuvieron estosequipos en el aire en el trimestre inmediatamente anterior. Debido a la inexactitudde los pronósticos actuales se presentan una serie de complicaciones a la horade ejecutar el presupuesto requerido pues generalmente resulta insuficiente. En elpresente trabajo se identifica un modelo ARFIMA(p,d,q) que permite pronosticaradecuadamente las horas de vuelo de la aeronave B-350 de la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana y que puede ser empleado por el alto mando militar para tomar decisiones administrativas acertadas en la planeación y uso mensual de esta aeronave.

  • English

    The Planning and Statistics Department determines for one period the number of hours of flight of every aircraft of the Colombian Air Force using a simple average of the observations in the previous period. Due to the inaccuracy of current forecasts, a great number complications in budget execution arises for being usually insufficient. In this paper an ARFIMA(p,d,q) model was adjusted to predict adequately the number of flight hours for the FAC B-350 aircraft and can be used by the military high command to make appropriate planning and strategy decisions for that aircraf.

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