Resumen de Valoración del riesgo en un modelo multinivel de suministro
Jesús Escalante Euán
Risk management is a structured approach that incorporates uncertainty related to a threat, linked to a sequence of inherently human activities that include risk assessment, as well as other strategies for its mitigation. The objective is to reduce different risks related to a pre-selected area. Your classification it is diverse, for example: threats due to factors associated with the environment, technology, human errors, organizations, among others.
The risk assessment is being consolidated as a support tool for the analysis of decisions under conditions of uncertainty, particularly for complex systems, such as supply chains. Without a doubt, risk management.
It becomes relevant being a critical component in management decisions, as it is a continuous process. From this perspective, Through parametric approaches and multivariate analysis, it has been possible to study and represent the resulting data to observe more than one statistical variable on a particular population.
For which an instrument has been designed and validated for the collection of information through the configuration of an interface on-line. We have oriented our efforts to know what is the perception of risk, the strategies of collaboration, as well as as the identification of logistic practices, given a conglomerate of actors, particularly in risk contexts associated with hydrometeorological phenomena.
In a second instance, based on the previous steps, we have proposed modeling and the simulation approach of Monte Carlo to identify the impact of competitive risks. This paradigm has been consolidated in medical science, but nowadays you can find contributions in the social sciences, engineering, acting, among others.
Our approach proposes a selection of causes of failure belonging to a set of possible events, which were identified in the diagnostic phase. We specify the modeling through the identification and discrimination of risks for each level of supply.
Through the simulation of competitive risks, the cumulative incidence, the probabilities of occurrence and the compliance rates for a multilevel supply model. Also, an alternative and versatile solution was formulated for diversify the instruments, methods and techniques of risk treatment in supply chains. The solution, estimates the probability of failure for a given cause, before the specific expiration time.
Finally, a case study was proposed where, through the simulation approach, the behavior of a set of instances, whose analysis component is subject in particular to sudden disruptions of supplies,associated with hydrometeorological phenomena. Through this perspective of analysis, we contribute with a configuration that incorporates diagnostic components, its implementation and the assessment of risk scenarios.
The results in each of the different stages reveal that the modeling, simulation, analysis and treatment of the data, are a vital factor in explaining the effects, as well as their ability to articulate high-value solutions for organizations
