Bringing together a collection of previously published work, this book provides a timely discussion of major considerations relating to the construction of econometric models that work well to explain economic phenomena, predict future outcomes and be useful for policy-making. Analytical relations between dynamic econometric structural models and empirical time series MVARMA, VAR, transfer function, and univariate ARIMA models are established with important application for model-checking and model construction. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are also presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision and the new Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that features demand, supply and entry equations for major sectors of economies is analysed and described. This volume will prove invaluable to professionals, academics and students alike.
págs. 3-43
págs. 44-78
Comment
David A. Belsley Cabanas
págs. 79-81
Comment
Carl F. Christ
págs. 82-83
Comment
Peter M. Robinson
págs. 84-86
Comment
Thomas J. Rothenberg
págs. 87-90
págs. 91-95
Structural econometric modeling and time series analysis: an integrated approach
Franz C. Palm
págs. 96-165
Comment
Carl F. Christ
págs. 165-169
Comment
Christopher A. Sims
págs. 169-171
Response to the discussants
Franz C. Palm
págs. 172-174
Time series analysis, forecasting, and econometric modeling: the structural econometric modeling, time series analysis (SEMTSA) approach
págs. 175-200
Large-sample estimation and testing procedures for dynamic equation systems
Franz C. Palm, Arnold Zellner
págs. 201-232
Franz C. Palm, Arnold Zellner
págs. 233-240
Time series and structural analysis of monetary models of the US economy
Arnold Zellner, Franz C. Palm
págs. 243-287
Time series versus structural models: a case study of Canadian manufacturing inventory behavior
Pravin K. Trivedi
págs. 288-314
Time series analysis of the German hyperinflation
Paul Evans
págs. 315-331
A time series analysis of seasonality in econometric models
Charles I. Plosser
págs. 332-382
Comment
Gregory C. Chow
págs. 382-388
Comment and implications for policy-makers and model builders
Raymond Lombra
págs. 388-394
Response to discussants
Charles I. Plosser
págs. 394-396
The behavior of speculative prices and the consistency of economic models
Robert I. Webb
págs. 397-404
A comparison of the stochastic processes of structural and time series exchange rate models
Francis W. Ahking, Stephen M. Miller
págs. 405-417
Encompassing univariate models in multivariate time series: a case study
págs. 418-454
Macroeconomic forecasting using pooled international data
Antonio García Ferrer , Richard A. Highfield, Franz C. Palm, Arnold Zellner
págs. 457-484
Forecasting international growth rates using Bayesian shrinkage and other procedures
Arnold Zellner, Chansik Hong
págs. 485-505
Turning points in economic time series, loss structures, and Bayesian forecasting
Arnold Zellner, Chansik Hong, Gaurang M. Gulati
págs. 506-527
Arnold Zellner, Chansik Hong, Chung-Ki Min
págs. 528-558
Chung-Ki Min, Arnold Zellner
págs. 559-589
Pooling in dynamic panel data models: an application to forecasting GDP growth rates
André J. Hoogstrate, Franz C. Palm, Gerard A. Pfann
págs. 590-611
Forecasting turning points in countries' output growth rates: a response to Milton Friedman
Arnold Zellner, Chung-Ki Min
págs. 612-616
Using Bayesian techniques for data pooling in regional payroll forecasting
James P. Lesage, Michael Magura
págs. 619-636
Forecasting turning points in metropolitan employment growth rates using Bayesian techniques
James P. Lesage
págs. 637-655
págs. 656-666
págs. 667-676
págs. 677-706
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