This text presents notions and ideas at the foundations of a statistical treatment of risks. The focus is on statistical applications within the field of engineering risk and safety analysis. Coverage includes Bayesian methods. Such knowledge facilitates the understanding of the influence of random phenomena and gives a deeper understanding of the role of probability in risk analysis. The text is written for students who have studied elementary undergraduate courses in engineering mathematics, perhaps including a minor course in statistics. This book differs from typical textbooks in its verbal approach to many explanations and examples.
Basic Probability.- Subjective Probabilities versus Long-term Frequencies.- Random Variables.- Fitting Distributions to Data–Frequentist Approach.- Dependent Random Variables-Conditional Probabilities.- Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis.- Intensities and the Poisson Process.- Failure Probabilities and Safety Indexes.- Characteristics Strength, Design Loads.- Extremes.
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