Determinants of Birth Intervals in Tamil Nadu in India: Developing Cox Hazard Models with Validations and Predictions

• RAJVIR SINGH ^[2] ; VRIJESH TRIPATHI ^[1] ; MANI KALAIVANI ^[3] ; KALPANA SINGH ^[4] ; S.N. DWIVEDI ^[3]
  1. [1] University of the West Indies

     University of the West Indies

     Jamaica

     
  2. [2] Hamad Medical Corporation CCS Department Medical Research Centre- Cardiology
  3. [3] All India Institute of Medical Sciences Department of Biostatistics
  4. [4] Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. Clinical Research Department

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• Localización: Revista Colombiana de Estadística, ISSN-e 2389-8976, ISSN 0120-1751, Vol. 35, Nº. Extra 2, 2012 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Número especial en Bioestadística), págs. 289-307
• Idioma: inglés
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Determinantes de los intervalos genésicos en Tamil Nadu (India): desarrollando modelos de riesgos de Cox con validaciones y predicciones
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• Resumen
  • español

    Este estudio utiliza datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud Familiar (International Institute for Population Sciences 1995) realizada en el estado de Tamil Nadu, India. Se desarrollaron modelos de Cox para analizar el efecto de la lactancia materna cuando varía en el tiempo y el factor tiempo depende de los intervalos genésicos. La lactancia materna sólo mejora la probabilidad de acceder a un nivel más alto en cada intervalo de nacimiento. Otros factores que entraron en los modelos fueron en el intervalo del primer parto: nivel educativo de la madre (secundaria y superior) y trabajo de la madre; en el intervalo del segundo parto: nivel de supervivencia en el índice de vida infantil y nivel educativo del padre (secundaria y superior), y en el intervalo del tercer parto: lactancia materna más 22 meses. Cada uno de los anteriores es un factor protector para ampliar el intervalo entre nacimientos en el estudio. Además, este estudio confirma los modelos desarrollados en los servicios públicos de predicción para los intervalos genésicos.

  • English

    The present study uses data from National Family Health Survey (NFHS-1) 1992-93 (International Institute for Population Sciences 1995) conducted in the state of Tamil Nadu, India. Cox models were developed to analyze the effect of breastfeeding as time varying and time dependent factor on birth intervals. Breastfeeding alone improved the log likelihood up to a higher level in each birth interval. Other factors that entered into the models were: at first birth interval, womens education (high school & above) and working status of women; at second birth interval, survival status of index child alive and husbands education (high school & above), and at third birth interval, breastfeeding more than 22 month were found to be protective factors for next births. Validation of the developed models was done through bootstrapping to predict birth intervals.

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