Bayesian estimation of parameters in a SI mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease in Peru

• Emma Norma Cambillo Moyano ^[1] ; Ysela Agüero ^[1] ; Alicia Cirila Riojas Cañari ; Pedro Isaac Pesantes Grados ; Roxana López Cruz
  1. [1] Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos

     Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos

     Perú

     
• Localización: Selecciones Matemáticas, ISSN-e 2411-1783, Vol. 10, Nº. Extra 1, 2023, págs. 41-50
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.17268/sel.mat.2023.01.04
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• Resumen

  • The objective of the research is to estimate the transmission rate of an infection (β) in the SI epidemical model, using Bayesian statistical methods from observed data in Peru. After studying the SI mathematical model and Bayesian statistical inference metho’ds, a Bayesian estimator is proposed to estimate the transmisión rate of an infection in this model and a procedure is proposed to estimate this rate using Montecarlo simulation based on Markov chains - MCMC.