Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality for Peruvian Population

• Cerda-Hernández, J. ^[1] ; Sikov, A. ^[2]
  1. [1] Department of Engineering Economics, National Engineering University, Av. Túpac Amaru, 210, Lima-Perú.
  2. [2] Department of Engineering Statistics, National Engineering University, Av. Túpac Amaru, 210, Lima-Perú.
• Localización: Selecciones Matemáticas, ISSN-e 2411-1783, Vol. 8, Nº. 1, 2021 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Enero-Julio), págs. 52-65
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.17268/sel.mat.2021.01.05
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen

  • In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the two-factor Lee-Carter (LC) model. The stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been used by many authors for fitting and forecasting the human mortality rates. The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach is used for estimation of the parameters of the LC model. Utilizing the best fitted auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model we forecast the values of the time dependent parameter of the LC model for the next thirty years. The forecasted values of life expectancy at different age group with 95% confidence intervals are also reported for the next thirty  years. In this research we use the data, obtained from the Peruvian National Institute of Statistics (INEI).

     

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Baran S, Gall J, Ispany M and Pap M. Forecasting Hungarian Mortality Rates Using The Lee-Carter Method. Acta Economica; (2007). 57, 21-34.
  • Booth H, Maindonald J and Smith L. Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline. Population studies. 2002; 56(3): 325-336.
  • Brockwell PJ and Davis RA. Time Series: Theory and Methods. New York: Springer; 2013.
  • Cairns AJ, Blake D and Dowd K. A Two Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration. Journal of...
  • Hamilton JD. Time Series Analysis. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press; 1994.
  • Horiuchi S and Wilmoth JR. Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at older ages. Demography. 1998; 35(4):391-412.
  • Khamladze EV. Statistical Methods With Application to Demography and Life Insurance. New York: Taylor and Franciss Group; 2013.
  • Koissi MC and Shapiro A. The Lee-Carter model under the condition of variables age-specific parameters. 43rd Actuarial Research Conference,...
  • Lawson C and Hanson R. (1974). Solving Least Squares Problems. Elglewood Cliffs, N.J. Prentice-Hall; 1974.
  • Lee RD and Carter LR. (1992) Modeling and forecasting US mortality. Journal of the American statistical association. 1992; 87(419):659-671.
  • Lee RD and Rofman R. (1994). Modeling and forecasting mortality in Chile. Notas. 1994; 22(59):182-213.
  • Lin J. Changing Kinship Structure and its Implications for Old-Age Support in Urban and Rural China. Population Studies. 1995; 49(1): 127–...
  • Li SH and Chan WS. (2004). Estimation of Complete period life tables for singaporeans. Journal of Actuarial Practice. 2004; 11:129-146.
  • Ngataman N, Ibrahim RI and Yusuf MM. Forecasting the Mortlaity Rates of Malaysian Population Using Lee-Carter Method. American Institue of...
  • Rajendra NC and Ramkrishna LS. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality Using the Lee-Carter Model for Indian Population Based on Decade-wise Data...
  • Renshaw AE and Haberman S. (2006) A cohort-based extension to the LeeCarter model for mortality reduction factors. Insurance:
  • Mathematics and Economics. 2006; 38(3):556-570.
  • Shores T. Applied Linear Algebra and Matrix Analysis. Heildelberg: Springer Verlag. 2004.
  • Thatcher AR. The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 1999; 162(1):5-43.
  • Tuljapurkar S, Nan L and Boe C. (2000). A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries. Nature. 2000; 405:789–792.
  • Wilmoth JR. (1993) Computational Methods for Fitting and Extrapolating the Lee-Carter Model of Mortality Change. University of California,...
  • Wilmoth JR. (1996). Mortality Projections for Japan: A Comparison of Four Methods. Oxford University Press, New York. Health and Mortality...
  • Yadav A, Yadav S and Kesarwani R. (2012). Decelerating Mortality Rates in Older Ages and its Prospects through Lee-Carter Approach. PLoS ONE....