Dynamical Behavior and Numerical Simulation of an Influenza A Epidemic Model with Log-Normal Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process

• Xiaoshan Zhang ^[1] ; Xinhong Zhang ^[1]
  1. [1] China University of Petroleum (East China),
• Localización: Qualitative theory of dynamical systems, ISSN 1575-5460, Vol. 23, Nº 4, 2024
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1007/s12346-024-01051-7
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen

  • Influenza remains one of the most widespread epidemics, characterized by serious pathogenicity and high lethality, posing a significant threat to public health. This paper focuses on an influenza A infection model that includes vaccination and asymptomatic patients. The deterministic model examines the existence and local asymptotic stability of equilibria. In light of the influence of environmental disruption on the spread of disease, we develop a stochastic model in which the transmission rate follows a log-normal Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. To demonstrate the dynamic behavior of the stochastic model, we verify the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution. The establishment of suitable Lyapunov functions allows for the determination of sufficient conditions for the stationary distribution and extinction of the disease.

    Furthermore, the expression of the local density function around the quasi-endemic equilibrium is represented. Eventually, numerical simulations are conducted to support theoretical results and explore the effect of environmental noise. Our findings indicate that high noise intensity can expedite the extinction of the disease, while low noise intensity can facilitate the disease reaching a stationary distribution. This information may be valuable in developing strategies for disease prevention and control.

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