On inference for threshold for autoregressive models

• Autores: Yu-Jau Lin, Osnat Stramer
• Localización: Test: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, ISSN-e 1863-8260, ISSN 1133-0686, Vol. 11, Nº. 1, 2002, págs. 55-71
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1007/bf02595729
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• Resumen

  • We provide a complete Bayesian method for analyzing a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model when the order of the model is unknown. Our approach is based on a version (Godsill (2001)) of the reversible jump algorithm of Green (1995), and the method for estimating marginal likelihood from the Metropolis-Hasting algorithm by Chib and Jeliazkov (2001). We illustrate our results with simulated data and the Wolfe's sunspot data set.