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Seguridad ciudadana como elemento fundamental para el desarrollo humano: análisis de delitos en Chile mediante un modelo logístico espaciotemporal

  • Pablo Cadena-Urzúa [1] ; Adina Iftimi [1] ; Francisco Montes-Suay [1] Árbol académico
    1. [1] Universitat de València

      Universitat de València

      Valencia, España

  • Localización: Revista Iberoamericana de Estudios de Desarrollo= Iberoamerican Journal of Development Studies, ISSN-e 2254-2035, Vol. 12, Nº. 1, 2023, págs. 30-49
  • Idioma: español
  • DOI: 10.26754/ojs_ried/ijds.699
  • Títulos paralelos:
    • Citizen security as a fundamental element for human development: analysis crimes in Chile using a spatiotemporal logistic model
  • Enlaces
  • Resumen
    • español

      La seguridad ciudadana es una condición esencial para la realización de las personas; en aporte a esto, el objetivo del artículo es proporcionar información relevante sobre el comportamiento del crimen, analizando los delitos de mayor connotación social ocurridos en las comunas de la Región Metropolitana de Chile. El método elegido es un modelo logístico, que incluye covariables socioeconómicas y demográficas de cada comuna, además de efectos espaciales y temporales.

      En el caso de las primeras, destaca la importancia que tiene la población, la mortalidad infantil, los ingresos propios permanentes y la pobreza como factores que aumentan significativamente la probabilidad de perpetración de delitos, especialmente los robos en todas sus formas. En este mismo orden de ideas, la asistencia escolar y las áreas verdes disminuyen la ocurrencia de delitos.

      Crímenes que destacan por su extrema violencia, como son el homicidio y la violación, ocurren con mayor probabilidad los días sábado y domingo; se suma a ellos, además, el viernes, para los delitos de lesiones y robo con violencia. Con todo, es importante este tipo de análisis, que permite identificar patrones delictivos que pueda adoptar el crimen, todo orientado a una prevención del delito focalizada y basada en evidencia, con el fin de contener el crimen y, así, favorecer el desarrollo humano, lo que permite al individuo y a la comunidad realizar sus legítimas aspiraciones.

    • English

      Citizen security is an essential condition for the realization of people; in contribution to this, the objective of the article is to provide relevant information on the behavior of crime, analyzing the crimes of greater social connotation that occurred in the communes of the Metropolitan Region of Chile.

      The chosen method is a logistic model, which includes socioeconomic and demographic covariates of each commune, as well as spatial and temporal effects. In the case of the former, it highlights the importance of the population, infant mortality, permanent personal income, and poverty as factors that significantly increase the probability of committing crimes, especially robbery in all its forms.

      In this same order of ideas, school attendance and green areas reduce the occurrence of crimes.

      Crimes that stand out for their extreme violence, such as homicide and rape, occur with greater probability on Saturday and Sunday, besides on Friday, for the crimes of lesions and robbery with violence. This type of analysis is important because it allows identifying criminal patterns that crime can adopt, all aimed at focused and evidence-based crime prevention, to contain crime and, thus, favor human development, which that allows the individual and the community to realize their legitimate aspirations

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