A Gompertz mixture approach for modeling the evolution of the COVID-19 dynamics

• Gonzalez Farias, Graciela ^[2] ; Vásquez Martínez, Roberto ^[1] ; Márquez Urbina, José Ulises ^[3] ; Ramos Quiroga, Rogelio ^[2]
  1. [1] Universidad de Guanajuato

     Universidad de Guanajuato

     México

     
  2. [2] CIMAT, Probability and Statistics, Research Center in Mathematics, Guanajuato, Mexico
  3. [3] CIMAT, Probability and Statistics, Research Center in Mathematics, Monterrey and National Council on Science and Technology (CONACYT), Monterrey, Mexico

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• Localización: Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones, ISSN 2215-3373, ISSN-e 2215-3373, Vol. 30, Nº. 1, 2023 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones), págs. 141-172
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.15517/rmta.v30i1.50927
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Mezcla de Gompertz para modelar la evolución de la dinámica del COVID-19
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• Resumen
  • español

    Diferentes países usaron la función de crecimiento Gompertz al principio de la pandemia por COVID-19 para modelar el numero acumulado de infectados dado que proporcionaba un ajuste razonable. Este modelo permite una única moda, pero la pandemia evoluciono exhibiendo un comportamiento multimodal debido a las diferentes olas y variantes del COVID-19. Por tanto, el modelo Gompertz clásico de crecimiento no ajusta bien para describir una pandemia larga con diferentes variantes del virus. Este trabajo presenta generalizaciones del modelo Gompertz donde se pueda capturar un comportamiento multimodal para modelar la dinámica de los casos infectados. Este modelo es aplicado a datos de COVID-19 de Nuevo León, México.

  • English

    Different countries used the growth Gompertz function at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to model the number of cumulative infected cases since it provides reasonable results. Such a model allows only one mode, but the pandemic evolution has exhibited a multimodal behavior due to the different waves and variants of the COVID-19 virus. Thus, Gompertz’s classical growth model is not well suited to describe a long pandemic with different virus variants. This work presents generalizations of the Gompertz model that can reproduce a multimodal behavior to model the dynamics of infected cases. The models are applied to COVID-19 data from Nuevo Leon, Mexico.

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