Modelos de Series de Tiempo para Predecir el Número de Casos de Variantes Dominantes del SARS-COV-2 Durante las Olas Epidémicas en Chile

• Autores: Claudia Paz Barría Sandoval, Patricio Andrés Salas Fernández, Guillermo Patricio Ferreira Cabezas
• Localización: Revista Politécnica, ISSN-e 2477-8990, Vol. 50, Nº. 3, 2022 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Revista Politécnica), págs. 17-26
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.33333/rp.vol50n3.02
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Time Series Models for Forecasting the Number of Cases of SARS-COV-2 Dominant Variants During the EpidemicWaves in Chile
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    El COVID-19 y sus variantes han creado una pandemia a nivel global. En Chile, hasta el 28 de febrero del 2022, ya se han infectado más de 3 millones de personas y han muerto más de 42 mil personas. En este artículo, se realiza un estudio comparativo de diferentes modelos matemáticos utilizados para modelar y predecir el número de casos diarios confirmados de COVID-19 en Chile. Esta investigación considera los registros diarios de casos confirmados desde el inicio de la pandemia y por lo tanto incluye los contagiados por las distintas variantes del virus (Delta, Gamma y Omicron), estas variantes han dominado la evolución de los contagios diarios en Chile, siendo la variante Omicron la que ha demostrado tener una mayor tasa de contagios a nivel nacional. El objetivo de este estudio es brindar información relevante sobre la evolución de la pandemia por COVID-19 en Chile mediante modelos de series de tiempo que han sido validados en distintas investigaciones y evaluar su precisión frente a la variante Omicron del virus SARS-CoV-2.

  • English

    COVID-19 and its variants have created a global pandemic. In Chile, as of February 28 2022, more than 3 million people have been infected and more than 42 thousand people have died. In this article, a comparative study of different mathematical models used to model and predict the number of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Chile is carried out. This research considers the daily records of confirmed cases since the beginning of the pandemic and therefore, includes those infected by the different variants of the virus (Delta, Gamma and Omicron), these variants have dominated the evolution of daily infections in Chile, being the Omicron variant the one that has shown to have a higher rate of infection at national level. The objective of this study is to provide relevant information on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile through time series models that have been validated in different investigations and to assess their validity with the appearance of the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

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