Granger causality and time series regression for modelling the migratory dynamics of influenza into Brazil

Aline Foerster Grande ^[1] ; Guilherme Pumi ^[1] ; Gabriela Bettella Cybis ^[1]
1. [1] Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
  
  Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
  
  Brasil
Localización: Sort: Statistics and Operations Research Transactions, ISSN 1696-2281, Vol. 46, Nº. 2, 2022, págs. 161-187
Idioma: inglés
Enlaces
- Texto completo (pdf)
Resumen
- In this work we study the problem of modelling and forecasting the dynamics of the influenza virus in Brazil at a given month, from data on reported cases and genetic diversity collected from previous months, in other locations. Granger causality is employed as a tool to assess possible predictive relationships between covariates. For modelling and forecasting purposes, a time series regression approach is applied considering lagged information regarding reported cases and genetic diversity in other regions. Three different models are analysed, including stepwise time series regression and LASSO.