Counter Intituive COVID-19 Propagation Dynamics in Brazil

• Manuel Graña ^[1] ; Goizalde Badiola-Zabala ^[1] ; Jose Manuel Lopez-Guede ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea

     Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea

     Leioa, España

     
• Localización: Hybrid Artificial Intelligent Systems: 16th International Conference, HAIS 2021. Bilbao, Spain. September 22–24, 2021. Proceedings / coord. por Hugo Sanjurjo González, Iker Pastor López , Pablo García Bringas , Héctor Quintián Pardo , Emilio Santiago Corchado Rodríguez , 2021, ISBN 978-3-030-86271-8, págs. 427-435
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • There are few studies concerning the propagation of COVID-19 pandemic, besides theoretical models that have produced alarming predictions. These models assume wave-like propagation dynamics on an uniform medium. However, it appears that COVID-19 follows unexpected propagation dynamics. In this paper we consider the state-wise data on COVID-19 mortality in Brazil provided by government sources. Conventional propagation models tell us that the pandemic should propagate over the neighboring states from the initial cases in Sao Paulo. We compute several measures of correlation and prediction by random forests finding that the patterns of propagation do not correlate well with the graph distances defined by the spatial neighborhood of the states. We think that this phenomenon deserves further attention in order to understand COVID-19 pandemic.