Filosofía de la Ciencia del Cambio Climático: modelos, problemas e incertidumbres

• Madrid Casado, Carlos M. ^[1]
  1. [1] Fundación Gustavo Bueno
• Localización: Revista Colombiana de Filosofía de la Ciencia, ISSN-e 2463-1159, ISSN 0124-4620, Vol. 20, Nº. 41, 2020 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Revista Colombiana de Filosofía de la Ciencia), págs. 201-234
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.18270/rcfc.v20i41.3193
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Philosophy of Climate Science: Models, Problems and Uncertainties
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    El objetivo de este artículo es mostrar los problemas de la filosofía de la ciencia que enfrentan los investigadores del cambio climático. El tópico de la carga teórica de la observación aparece dentro del campo como una indispensabilidad de modelos teóricos en la detección y atribución del cambio climático. La infra-determinación empírica de los modelos se acompaña de una incertidumbre de valores (de series instrumentales y datos proxy) y una incertidumbre estructural, relativa a la especificación de los acoplamientos y forzamientos radiativos. Se examina, además, el realismo de los modelos globales en conexión con su calibración y las proyecciones climáticas.

  • English

    The aim of this paper is to show the epistemological problems that researchers of climate change face. The topic of theory-laden observation appears within the field as an indispensability of theoretical models in detecting and attributing climate change. The empirical underdetermination of models is accompanied by an uncertainty of values ​​(of instrumental series and proxy-data) and a structural uncertainty (relative to couplings and radiative forcings). Finally, the article examines the realism of global climate models in connection with their calibration, deterministic chaos and climate projections.

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