Xarxes bayesianes: una metodologia per a avaluar riscos

• Rosario Delgado ^[1]
  1. [1] Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

     Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

     Barcelona, España

     
• Localización: NouBiaix: revista de la FEEMCAT i la SCM, ISSN-e 2014-7104, ISSN 1133-4282, Nº. 45, 2019, págs. 4-30
• Idioma: catalán
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    In this paper we introduce the Bayesian networks, which are probabilistic mathematical models that are used to model situations in contexts of uncertainty and complexity. They can be used, in particular, for the evaluation of risks, that is to say, to estimate the probability of phenomena with negative effects. We introduce this methodology from examples and present the Total Probability Formula and Bayes’ Formula, as tools to update the risk assessment. We also talk about spurious (cor)relationships and confounding factors, and about how the odds ratio (or likelihood ratio) can be used to assess the weight of the evidence.

  • català

    En aquest article presentem les xarxes bayesianes, que són models matemàtics probabilístics que es fan servir per modelar situacions en contextos d’incertesa i complexitat. Es poden fer servir, en particular, per a l’avaluació de riscos, és a dir, per estimar la probabilitat de fenòmens amb efectes negatius. Introduïm aquesta metodologia a partir d’exemples i presentem la fórmula de la probabilitat total i la fórmula de Bayes com a eines per actualitzar l’avaluació dels riscos. També parlem de (cor)relacions espúries i factors de confusió, i de com es pot fer servir l’odds ratio (o raó de versemblances) per valorar el pes de les evidències.

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