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Efectos de las medidas de prevención y mitigación de la pandemia de COVID-19 sobre los índices de confianza en países de la OCDE

  • Tomás Gómez Rodríguez [1] ; María de la Luz Pérez Reveles [2] ; Humberto Ríos Bolívar [2]
    1. [1] Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo

      Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo

      México

    2. [2] Instituto Politécnico Nacional

      Instituto Politécnico Nacional

      México

  • Localización: Contaduría y administración, ISSN 0186-1042, ISSN-e 2448-8410, Vol. 65, Nº. Extra 5, 2020 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Especial COVID-19)
  • Idioma: español
  • DOI: 10.22201/fca.24488410e.2020.3033
  • Títulos paralelos:
    • Effects of COVID-19 prevention and mitigation measures on confidence indexes in OECD countries
  • Enlaces
  • Resumen
    • español

      Analizar el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 sobre la incertidumbre económica es esencial. Sobre todo, cuando se considera que las medidas de incertidumbre económica pueden proporcionar información prospectiva acerca de la actividad económica en tiempo real. Con este fin, se utilizan el índice de confianza del consumidor y el índice de confianza empresarial como variables dependientes. Por otro parte, para analizar las consecuencias de la pandemia se utiliza: el número de decesos confirmados por COVID-19 como variable independiente. De igual manera, para evaluar las medidas de contención y mitigación de la pandemia se emplearon el índice de apoyo económico y el índice de respuesta gubernamental. Se consideraron dos muestras de diferente composición, una para cada índice de confianza. Ambas muestras se componen de 28 países miembros o socios de la OCDE. Se utilizó el Método Generalizado de Momentos con efectos fijos de dos vías para realizar el análisis estadístico. Los resultados muestran que existe una relación positiva entre la incertidumbre económica y el número de decesos confirmados por COVID-19. Por otro lado, se detectó una relación negativa entre el índice de respuesta gubernamental y la incertidumbre económica.

    • English

      Analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic uncertainty is essential. Especially when one considers that measures of economic uncertainty can provide forward-looking information about economic activity in real time. For this purpose, the Consumer Confidence Index and the Business Confidence Index are used as dependent variables. On the other hand, to analyze the consequences of the pandemic, the number of deaths confirmed by COVID-19 is used as an independent variable. Similarly, the index of economic support and the index of government response were used to assess measures of containment and mitigation of the pandemic. Two samples of different composition were considered, one for each confidence index. Both samples are composed of 28 OECD member or partner countries. The Generalized Method of Moments with two-way fixed effects was used to perform the statistical analysis. The results show that there is a positive relationship between economic uncertainty and the number of deaths confirmed by COVID-19. On the other hand, a negative relationship was detected between the government response rate and economic uncertainty.

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