Intelligent data analysis of the influence of COVID-19 on the stock market using Case Based Reasoning

• Lorenzo Sánchez, Antonio ^[1] ; Olivas, Jose ^[2]
  1. [1] Information Technologies and Systems Institute, University of Castilla La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain.
  2. [2] SMILe (Soft Management of Internet and Learning). Information Technologies and Systems Institute, University of Castilla La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain.
• Localización: Journal of Computer Science and Technology, ISSN-e 1666-6038, Vol. 20, Nº. 2, 2020 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Fifty-Second Issue; e14)
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.24215/16666038.20.e10
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Analisis de datos inteligente de la influencia del COVID-19 en los mercados bursátiles utilizando CBR.
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    Comenzando con las diferencias entre el pronóstico y la predicción y profundizando en la predicción, se presenta un modelo basado en el conocimiento. Se analiza la evolución de las bolsas de valores, así como cómo les han afectado las epidemias y pandemias previas a las bolsas de valores y cómo está siendo afectado actualmente por el covid-19. El modelo definido se aplica a un caso de uso utilizando Case-Based Reasoning (CBR): hace una analogía entre la crisis de 2008 con la crisis del covid-19 en 2020 para predecir si los mercados de valores tardarán más o menos en recuperarse.

  • English

    Starting with the differences between forecasting and prediction and going deeper into prediction, a knowledge-based model is presented. The evolution of the stocks markets are analyzed, as well as how the epidemics and pandemics prior to the stock markets have affected them and how it is currently being affected by covid-19. The defined model is applied to a use case using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR): it makes an analogy between the 2008 crisis with the covid-19 crisis in 2020 to predict whether the stock markets will take more or less time to recover.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Selvin, S., Vinayakumar, R., Gopalakrishnan, E. A., Menon, V. K., & Soman, K. P. (2017, September). Stock price prediction using LSTM,...
  • Minh, D. L., Sadeghi-Niaraki, A., Huy, H. D., Min, K., & Moon, H. (2018). Deep learning approach for short-term stock trends prediction...
  • Sezer, O. B., Gudelek, M. U., & Ozbayoglu, A. M. (2020). Financial time series forecasting with deep learning: A systematic literature...
  • Stuparu, D., Bachmann, D., Bogaard, T., Twigt, D., Verkade, J., de Bruijn, K., & de Leeuw, A. (2017). Case studies of extended model-based...
  • Ding, S., Hipel, K. W., & Dang, Y. G. (2018). Forecasting China's electricity consumption using a new grey prediction model. Energy,...
  • Nojek, S., Britos, P., Rossi, B., & García Martínez, R. (2003). Sales Forecast: Comparison of Neural Network Based Forecast versus Statistical...
  • Noy, I., & Shields, S. (2019). The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic: A Retroactive Examination of Economic Costs.
  • Gormsen, N. J., & Koijen, R. S. (2020). Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations. University of Chicago, Becker Friedman...
  • Albulescu, C. (2020). Coronavirus and oil price crash: A note. arXiv preprint arXiv:2003.06184.
  • Fan, V. Y., Jamison, D. T., & Summers, L. H. (2016). The inclusive cost of pandemic influ-enza risk (No. w22137). National Bureau of Economic...
  • The Top 20 Economies in the Worldhttps://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/, last accessed 2020/06/01.
  • World Map index Stock market. https://markets.businessinsider.com/indices, last accessed 2020/06/01.
  • The WTO authorizes the US to apply tariffs to the EU on products worth EUR 6.9 million. https://www.expansion.com/mercados/cronica-bolsa/2019/10/03/5d958c67e5fdeaca3e8b4601.html,...
  • How will Jo Cox's murder affect the outcome of Brexit?, https://www.expansion.com/economia/politica/2016/06/16/5762ce1be2704e0d668b458d.html,...
  • Win the Brexit. United Kingdom decides to leave the European Union. https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2016/06/23/576c25c7268e3ea6468b458a.html,...
  • Stock markets also hate Mondays: the worst day of the week to invest, https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/9119355/05/18/La-bolsa-tambien-odia-los-lunes-es-el-peor-dia-de-la-semana-para-invertir.html,...
  • World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/, last accessed 2020/06/01.
  • COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, last ac-cessed 2020/06/01.
  • University of Valencia, Spain. Predictive model of infected covid-19. http://covid19.webs.upv.es/, last accessed 2020/06/01.
  • Confirmed cases in Spain and around the world and keys to understanding the coronavirus.
  • https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/16/actualidad/1584379038_891570.html, last accessed 2020/06/01.
  • How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidem-ic? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/paper/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR2jIuxTB8-6iB9dxDtGQo81SpE_UVA-aiAPEp0_NGe5zjohcTV3fSfEAaY#sec1,...
  • Stock market panic over China: The Ibex25 crash 5% in the biggest fall in three years. https://www.expansion.com/mercados/cronica-bolsa/2015/08/24/55dab957268e3e6b6d8b456b.html,...
  • Saudi Arabia vs Russia: the price war that sank the value of oil and the world's stock markets in the midst of the coronavirus crisis....