Envejecimiento y precio de la vivienda en España: Un ejercicio de modelización dinámica

• Díaz Fernández, Montserrat ^[1] ; Llorente Marrón, María del Mar ^[1] ; Méndez Rodriguez, María Paz ^[1] ; Taltavull de la Paz, Paloma ^[2]
  1. [1] Universidad de Oviedo

     Universidad de Oviedo

     Oviedo, España

     
  2. [2] Universitat d'Alacant

     Universitat d'Alacant

     Alicante, España

     
• Localización: Anales de ASEPUMA, ISSN-e 2171-892X, Nº. 28, 2020
• Idioma: español
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (htm)
• Resumen
  • español

    En el análisis de la evolución demográfica y coyuntura económica, los cambios económicos que la preceden e inducen y el contexto demográfico que antecede, acompaña y provoca su desarrollo tienen plena justificación. La dinámica, evolución y comportamiento demográfico determinan los servicios de vivienda demandada. En la literatura económica, la combinación de la hipótesis del ciclo de vida y los modelos de generaciones solapadas, sugieren que el envejecimiento demográfico influye en la determinación del precio de la vivienda. En este trabajo se analiza empíricamente la relación entre envejecimiento y precio de la vivienda en España durante el período 1991-2019 a partir de un modelo de interrelación dinámica entre el ciclo inmobiliario y la estructura por edades de la población siguiendo la metodología tradicional de los estudios de series temporales.

  • English

    In the analysis of the demographic evolution and economic situation, the economic changes that precede and induce it and the demographic context that precedes, accompanies and causes its development are fully justified. The dynamics, evolution and demographic behavior determine the housing services demanded. In the economic literature, the combination of the life cycle hypothesis and the models of overlapping generations suggest that demographic aging influences the determination of the price of housing. In this work, the relationship between aging and the price of housing, in Spain during the period 1995-2017, is analyzed empirically based on a dynamic interrelation model between the real estate cycle and the age structure of the population following the traditional methodology of the studies of time series.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Ando, A.; Modigliani, F. (1963). The ‘‘Life Cycle’’ hypothesis of saving: aggregate implications and tests. The American Economic Review,...
  • Brumberg, R.H.; Modigliani, F. (1954). Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data. In: Kurihara,...
  • Clark, W.; Dieleman, F. (1996). Households and housing: Choice and outcomes in the housing market. New Brunswick: Centre for Urban Policy...
  • D’Albis, H.; Djemai, E. (2017). Evolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf. DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL DT/2017-15. Université Paris.
  • Di Pasquale, D.; Wheaton, W. (1994). “Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices.” Journal of Urban Economics 35 (1), 1–27.
  • Díaz, M.; Llorente, M.; Méndez, P. (2016). “¿Condiciona la población la dinámica de la actividad inmobiliaria? Un análisis de cointegración...
  • Eichholtz, P.; Lindenthal, T. (2014). “Demographics, human capital, and the demand for housing.” Journal of Housing Economics, 26,19-32.
  • Engelhardt, G.; Poterba, J.M. (1991). “Demographics and House Prices: The Canadian Evidence.” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 21 (4),...
  • Engle, R.; Granger, C. (1987). “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing.” Econometrica, 55 (2), 251-276....
  • Esping-Andersen G. (ed). (2007). Family Formation and Family Dilemmas in Contemporary Europe. Fundación BBVA. Bilbao.
  • Essafi, Y.; Simon, A. (2017). “Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers.” Revue d’Economie Régionale et Urbaine, 2017(1), 109–140.
  • Feijten, P.; Mulder, C. (2002). “The timing of household events and housing events in the Netherlands: A longitudinal perspective”. Housing...
  • Fortin, M.; Leclerc, A. (2002). Demographic changes and real houses prices in Canada. Working Paper, 6. Sherbrooke Department of Economics,...
  • Hendershott, P. H. (1991). “Are Real House Prices Likely to Decline by 47 Percent?” Regional Science and Urban Economics 21 (3), 553–563.
  • Holland, S. A. (1991). “The Baby-Boom and the Housing Market: Another Look at the Evidence”. Regional Science and Urban Economics 21 (4),...
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control nº 12.
  • Johansen, S. (1992). Determination of cointegration rank in the presence of a linear trend, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol....
  • Kryvobokov, M.; Pradella, S. (2016). Vieillissement de la population et prix immobiliers residentiels. Modélisation à l’échelle des arrondissements...
  • Kurz, K.; Blossfeld, H.P. (2004). Home Ownership and Social Inequality in Comparative Perspective, Stanford University Press.
  • Lee, G.; Schmidt-Dengler, P.; Felderer, B.; Helmenstein, C. (2001). “Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection?”. Empirica...
  • Lindh, T.; Malmberg, B. (2008). “Demography and housing demand-what can we learn from residential construction data?” Journal of Population...
  • Mankiw, N.G.; Weil, D.N. (1989). The baby boom, the baby hust and the housing market. Regional Science and Urban Economic, 19 (2), 235-258.
  • Monnet, E.; Wolf, C. (2016). Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: A Causal Examination. Working papers 591, Banque de France....
  • Myers, D. (1990). Housing demography: Linking demographic structure and housing markets. Madison, Wisc.: University of Wisconsin Press.
  • Nagahata, T.; Saita, Y.; Sekine, T.; Tachibana, T. (2004). Equilibrium land prices of Japanese prefectures: A panel cointegration analysis....
  • Nakamura, K.; Saita, Y. (2007). Land Prices and Fundamentals. Bank of Japan, Working Paper Series 07-E-8.
  • Neuteboom, P.; Brounen, B. (2010). Assessing the accessibility of the homeownership market. Urban studies, 48(11), 2231-2248.
  • Ohtake, F.; Shintani, M. (1996). “The Effect of Demographics on the Japanese Housing Market.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 26 (2),...
  • Shimizu, C.; Watanabe, T. (2010). “Housing Bubble in Japan and the United States.” Public Policy Review 6 (3), 431–472.
  • Vinuesa, J. (2008). “Prospectiva demográfica y mercado de la vivienda”. Revista Clm. economía, 11, 139-164.