Modeling voting dynamics in a two-party system

• PHAN, TIN ^[1] ; NAVAS-ZULOAGA, M. GABRIELA ^[1] ; IGNACE, CALEB ^[1] ; CASTILLO-GARSOW, CARLOS W. ^[2] ; MORENO, VICTOR M. ^[4] ; KRIBS, CHRISTOPHER M. ^[3]
  1. [1] Arizona State University

     Arizona State University

     Estados Unidos

     
  2. [2] Eastern Washington University

     Eastern Washington University

     Estados Unidos

     
  3. [3] University of Texas at Arlington

     University of Texas at Arlington

     Estados Unidos

     
  4. [4] Arizona State University, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Tempe AZ, United States; Brown University, Division of Applied Mathematics, Providence RI, United States

  Mostrar afiliaciones +
• Localización: Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones, ISSN 2215-3373, ISSN-e 2215-3373, Vol. 27, Nº. 1, 2020 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones), págs. 179-219
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.15517/rmta.v27i1.39970
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Modelar la dinámica de votación en un sistema de dos partidos
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    Las elecciones presidenciales de 2016 en los E.E.U.U., caracterizadas por resultados inesperados, proveen un contexto interesante para estudiar cómo son influenciados los ciudadanos en su decisión de voto. Nuestro objetivo es determinar qué cambios en la intención de voto tienen mayor impacto en el resultado. Con este fin desarrollamos una clase de modelos basados en o (1) los medios de comunicación masivos o (2) las interacciones entre los votantes y miembros de dos partidos. Dividimos a la población en cuatro compartimientos con una matriz de transición que describe la evolución de una cadena de Markov en tiempo discreto. Estudiamos cualitativamente cada modelo y utilizamos métodos numéricos para ajustar los parámetros a datos provenientes de encuestas previas a las elecciones de 2012 y 2016. Encontramos que la influencia social en cada grupo cambia de una elección a la siguiente, pero la respuesta a los medios.de comunicación es similar en ambos casos.

  • English

    The 2016 U.S. presidential primary election, characterized by unexpected results, provides an interesting context to study how citizens are influenced in deciding whether to vote and whom to support. Our aim is to determine which of those changes in voting behavior have the largest impact on the election outcome. We address this question by developing a class of models driven either by the effect of mass media or by social interaction among voters and non-voting members of two parties. The dynamics are modeled using four compartments with a transition matrix describing the evolution of a discrete-time Markov chain. Each model is studied and fit to poll data from the 2012 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections using numerical methods. A comparison across elections indicates that the social influence of each group changes from one election to another, but response to media is similar in both cases.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • [1] L. Arriola, J.M. Hyman, Sensitivity analysis for uncertainty quantification in mathematical models, in: G. Chowell, J.M. Hyman, L.M.A....
  • [2] BBC News US & Canada, Did Clinton win more votes than any white man in history?, https://www.bbc.com/news/ world-us-canada-38254946,...
  • [3] L.M.A. Bettencourt, A. Cintrón-Arias, D.I. Kaiser, C. Castillo-Chávez, The power of a good idea: quantitative modeling of the spread of...
  • [4] T. Bevan, C.M. Cannon, 21 reasons for Obama’s victory and Romney’s defeat, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/ 2012/11/07/21_reasons_for_obamas_victory_and_...
  • [5] A. Blake, Two-thirds of Americans don’t like Donald Trump. That’s still stunning, https://www. washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/08/...
  • [6] S.M. Blower, H. Dowlatabadi, Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example,...
  • [7] P. Bump, Trump got the most GOP votes ever — both for and against him — and other fun facts, https://www. washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/08/...
  • [8] Cable News Network, Breaking news, latest news and videos, www.cnn. com, consulted on 15-Jul-2016.
  • [9] Cable News Network,CNN: 2016 election results, https://www.cnn. com/election/2016/results, consulted on 16-Jul-2019.
  • [10] C. Castillo-Chavez, B. Song, Models for the transmission dynamics of fanatic behaviors, in: H.T. Banks and C. Castillo-Chavez (Eds.)...
  • [11] CBS News; The New York Times, Live, breaking news today: latest national headlines, world news and more from CBSNews.com and watch the...
  • [12] J. Clinton, J. Lapinski, M. Trussler, The economy or terrorism: which issue is most important to voters?, http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/...
  • [13] L. Cook, What’s the top issue for 2016? Depends where you look, http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2015 /06/29/whats-the-top-issue-for-2016-depends-where...
  • [14] R.S. Erikson, C. Wlezien, The Timeline of Presidential Elections. How Campaigns do (and do not) Matter, University of Chicago Press,...
  • [15] J. Fernández-Gracia, K. Suchecki, J.J. Ramasco, M. San Miguel, V.M. Eguíluz, Is the voter model a model for voters?, Physical Review...
  • [16] E. Fieldhouse, L. Lessard-Phillips, B. Edmonds, Cascade or echo chamber? a complex agent-based simulation of voter turnout, Party Politics...
  • [17] A.S. Gerber, D.P. Green, R. Shachar, Voting may be habit-forming: evidence from a randomized field experiment, American Journal of Political...
  • [18] M. Gold, A. Narayanswamy, D. Cameron, How much money is behind each campaign?, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/ politics/2016-election/campaign-finance/,...
  • [19] A. Halu, K. Zhao, A. Baronchelli, G. Bianconi, Connect and win: the role of social networks in political elections, EPL (Europhysics...
  • [20] N. Jackson, J. Velencia, Huffpollster: poll shows Hillary Clinton’s email woes aren’t over, http://www.huffingtonpost. com/entry/hillary-clinton-email-fbi-poll_us_...
  • [21] R.A. Jeffs, J. Hayward, P.A. Roach, J. Wyburn, Activist model of political party growth, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications...
  • [22] W. Jennings, C, Wleizien, Election polling errors across time and space, Nature Human Behaviour 2(2018), 276–283. doi: 10.1038/ s41562-018-0315-6
  • [23] E. Katz, The two-step flow of communication: an up-to-date report on an hypothesis, Public Opinion Quarterly 21(1957), no. 1, 61–78. doi:...
  • [24] M. Laver, E. Sergenti, Party competition: an agent-based model, Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ, 2012.
  • [25] K. Liptak, Report shows turnout lower than 2008 and 2004, http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/08/ report-shows-turnout-lower-than-2008-and-2004/,...
  • [26] E. MacAskill, Mitt Romney comes out on top as Obama stumbles in first debate, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/ oct/04/romney-obama-first-presidential-debate,...
  • [27] B.B. Machta, R. Chachra, M.K. Transtrum, J.P. Sethna, Parameter space compression underlies emergent theories and predictive models,...
  • [28] M.B. MacKuen, R.S. Erikson, J.A. Stimson, Macropartisanship, American Political Science Review 83(1989), no. 4, 1125–1142. doi: 10.2307/...
  • [29] MathWorks, Fmincon documentation, https://www.mathworks. com/help/optim/ug/fmincon.html, consulted on 05-Jul-2016.
  • [30] K.O. May, A set of independent necessary and sufficient conditions for simple majority decision, Econometrica 20(1952), no. 4, 680–684.
  • [31] S. Merrill III, B. Grofman, A unified theory of voting: directional and proximity spatial models, Cambridge University Press, New York...
  • [32] Monmouth University Poll, Monmouth University Polling Institute, www. monmouth.edu/polling-institute/, consulted on 05-Jul-2016.
  • [33] D.W. Nickerson, Is voting contagious? Evidence from two field experiments, American Political Science Review 102(2008), no. 1, 49–57....
  • [34] B. Nyhan, J. Reifler, When corrections fail: the persistence of political misperceptions, Political Behavior 32(2010), no. 2, 303–330....
  • [35] G. Orr, CS-449: Neural networks, https://www.willamette.edu/ ~gorr/classes/cs449/intro.html, consulted on 10-Jul-2016.
  • [36] T.E. Patterson, News coverage of the 2016 presidential primaries: horse race reporting has consequences, http://shorensteincenter. org/news-coverage-2016-presidential-primaries/,...
  • [37] Pew Research Center: Journalism & Media Staff, Winning the media campaign 2012, Pew Research Center, Technical Report, (2012). Available...
  • [38] Politico, www.politico.com/, consulted on 05-Jul-2016.
  • [39] Reuters News, Business & financial news, U.S & international breaking news, www.reuters.com/, consulted on 15-Jul-2016.
  • [40] D.M. Romero, C.M. Kribs-Zaleta, A. Mubayi, C. Orbe, An epidemiological approach to the spread of political third parties, Discrete and...
  • [41] R. Sago, B. Markus, J. Joffe-Block, Sick of political parties, unaffiliated voters are changing politics, http://www.npr.org/2016/02/28/467961962/...
  • [42] N. Silver, Fivethirtyeight’s pollster ratings, http://projects. fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/, consulted on 05Jul-2016.
  • [43] B. Song, M. Castillo-Garsow, K.R. Rios-Soto, M. Mejran, L. Henson, C. Castillo-Chávez, Raves, clubs and ecstasy: the impact of peer pressure,...
  • [44] D. Thompson, Who are Donald Trump’s supporters, really?, http:// www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/ who-are-donald-trumps-supporters-really/471714/,...
  • [45] P. Trubowitz, How the “Trump factor” came to dominate the 2016 election, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2016/01/29/ how-the-trump-factor-came-to-dominate-the-2016election/
  • [46] TV News Archive, Presidential campaign 2016: candidate television tracker, http://television.gdeltproject.org/cgi-bin/ iatv_campaign2016/iatv_campaign2016,...
  • [47] Washington Post, Washington Post: Breaking News, World, US, DC News & Analysis, www.washingtonpost.com/, consulted on 15-Jul-2016.
  • [48] C. Wlezien, M.N. Franklin, The future of election studies, Electoral Studies 21(2002),no.2,157-160.doi: 10.1016/S0261-3794(01)00014-2
  • [49] T. Wood, E. Porter, The elusive backfire effect: mass attitudes’ steadfast factual adherence, Political Behavior 41(2019), no. 1, 135–163....
  • [50] D. Wright, Poll: majority disagree with not charging Hillary Clinton, https://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/11/politics/ hillary-clinton-fbi-charges-poll/index.html,...
  • [51] L. Zhu, Y. Wang, Rumor spreading model with noise interference in complex social networks, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications...
  • [52] ABC News, The Washington Post, ABC News/Washington post poll: 2012 presidential election, [Data set]. USABCWASH2012-1140, Version 2....
  • [53] L.Arriola,J.M.Hyman, Sensitivity analysis for uncertainty quantification in mathematical models (G. Chowell, J. M. Hyman, L. M. A. Bettencourt...
  • [54] Cable News Network, CNN/ORC poll: 2012 presidential election/gun control/Syria, [Data set]. USORCCNN2012-007, Version 2. Opinion Research...
  • [55] Cable News Network, CNN/ORC poll: Presidential election, [Data set]. USORCCNN2012-WI1E, Version 2. Opinion Research Corporation [Producer]....
  • [56] CableNewsNetwork,CNN/ORCpoll: Wisconsin presidential election poll # 1, [Data set]. USORCCNN2012-009, Version 2. Opinion Research Corporation[producer]....
  • [57] CBS News, The New York Times, CBS News/New York Times poll: 2012 presidential election/issues impacting the election, [Data set]. USORCCNN2012-09A,...
  • [58] A. Halu, K. Zhao, A. Baronchelli, G. Bianconi, Connect and win: the role of social networks in political elections, EPL (Europhysics...
  • [59] Monmouth University Poll, National: all tied up in Monmouth poll, Obama 48%; Romney 48%, http://www.monmouth.edu/ polling-institute/reports/,...
  • [60] Monmouth University Poll, National: Obama gains over Romney, incumbent has edge on handling foreign policy in wake of Middle East violence,...
  • [61] Monmouth University Poll, National: Romney Edges Obama in Monmouth Poll, post-debate: more voters like Romney, give him edge on key issues,...
  • [62] Monmouth University Poll, National: Romney leads in Monmouth poll, Republican holds momentum after second debate, http://www. monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/,...
  • [63] Monmouth University Poll, National: Ryan’s initial impact, presidential horse race remains tight, http://www.monmouth.edu/ polling-institute/reports/,...
  • [64] T. E. Patterson, News coverage of the 2016 presidential primaries: horse race reporting has consequences, http://shorensteincenter. org/news-coverage-2016-presidential-primaries/.
  • [65] Pew Research Center: Journalism & Media Staff, Winning the media campaign 2012, Pew Research Center, Technical Report, (2012).
  • [66] Politico, George Washington battleground brushfire–week 1 #13560: weighted tables, September 24–27, 2012, http://images. politico.com/global/2012/10/bg_brushfire_tables_...
  • [68] Politico, George Washington battleground brushfire–week 2 #13697: weighted tables, October 29–November 1, 2012, http:// images.politico.com/global/2012/11/politico_...
  • [69] Reuters News, Core political data, May 14–18, 2016, http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ 2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical5182016.pdf,...
  • [70] Reuters News, Core political data, May 28–June 1, 2016, http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ 2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical60116.pdf,...
  • [71] Reuters News, Core political data, June 4–8, 2016, http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ 2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical6082016.pdf,...
  • [72] Reuters News, Core political data, June 11–15, 2016, http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ 2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical615.pdf, consulted...
  • [73] Reuters News, Core political data, June 18–22, 2016, http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ 2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical6222016.pdf,...
  • [74] Reuters News, Core political data, June 25–29, 2016, http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ 2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical.pdf, consulted...
  • [75] Reuters News, Core political data, July 2–6, 2016, http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ 2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical7062016.pdf,...
  • [76] N. Silver, Fivethirtyeight’s pollster ratings, http://projects. fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/, consulted on 05Jul-2016.
  • [77] TV News Archive, Presidential campaign 2016: candidate television tracker, http://television.gdeltproject.org/cgi-bin/ iatv_campaign2016/iatv_campaign2016,...