On a stochastic epidemic SEIHR model and its diffusion approximation
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Marco Ferrante [1]
;
Elisabetta Ferraris
[1]
;
Carles Rovira
[2]
-
[1] University of Padua
University of Padua
Padova, Italia
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[2] Universitat de Barcelona
Universitat de Barcelona
Barcelona, España
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- Localización: Test: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, ISSN-e 1863-8260, ISSN 1133-0686, Vol. 25, Nº. 3, 2016, págs. 482-502
- Idioma: inglés
- DOI: 10.1007/s11749-015-0465-z
- Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
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Resumen
To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods like varicella, we generalise a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We include both latent periods as well as the presence of quarantine areas, to capture the evolutionary dynamics of such diseases. Analytical results of the proposed Markovian model are provided. The basic reproduction number R0 of the former and new models as well as a diffusion approximation are derived, leading to a stochastic differential equation with multiple delays in a natural way.
