A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence

• Lorenzo Sánchez, Antonio ^[1] ; Olivas, Jose Angel ^[1]
  1. [1] Information Technologies and Systems Institute, University of Castilla La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain.
• Localización: Journal of Computer Science and Technology, ISSN-e 1666-6038, Vol. 19, Nº. 2, 2019 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Fiftieth Issue; e13), págs. 143-152
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.24215/16666038.19.e14
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Un caso de estudio de pronóstico de los resultados electorales: Más allá de la predicción basada en Business Intelligence
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    En el campo del análisis de datos, es común no distinguir claramente entre predicción y pronóstico. Aunque los resultados de ambos procesos pueden tender a converger, los mecanismos utilizados en cada caso tienden a ser completamente diferentes. La predicción tiene que ver con la extrapolación estadística y la estimación y el pronóstico puede considerar el juicio de expertos sobre el tema. Se propone una metodología para llevar a cabo esta última tarea, con un mecanismo que utiliza tanto datos históricos como actuales con el juicio de un experto para afinar el resultado. La metodología se aplica al estudio de caso de las elecciones generales españolas de abril de 2019.

  • English

    In the field of data analysis, it is common not to distinguish clearly between prediction and forecast. Although the results of both processes may tend to converge, the mechanisms used in each case tend to be completely different. Prediction has to do with statistical extrapolation and estimation and forecasting can consider expert judgments on the subject. A methodology is proposed to carry out this latter task, with a mechanism that uses both historical and current data with the judgement of an expert. The methodology is applied to the case study of the Spanish general elections of April 2019.

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