Elicitación de una distribución a priori para el modelo logístico

• Autores: Jenny Andrea Tangarife Quintero, Juan Carlos Correa Morales
• Localización: Comunicaciones en Estadística, ISSN 2027-3355, ISSN-e 2339-3076, Vol. 10, Nº. 2, 2017, págs. 225-246
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.15332/2422474x.3175
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Eliciting an a priori distribution for a logistic model
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    En muchas situaciones resulta util cuanticar informacion subjetiva que uno o varios expertos conocen acerca de un tema de interes, por esto, una parte importante dentro de la estadstica Bayesiana es la construccion de metodos de elicitacion para hallar distribuciones de probabilidad. Con el fin de contribuir al desarrollo en este campo,se desarrollo una metodología para elicitar los parametros de la regresion logstica con una sola covariable. El metodo que se plantea requiere que se jen unos niveles de la covarible y en estos se asume una distribucion Binomial, para cada nivel se elicita el parametro de interes mediante la metodologa indirecta de muestras hipoteticas. 

  • English

    In many situations it is useful to quantify subjective information that one or more experts know about a topic of interest, therefore, an important part of Bayesian statistics is building elicitation methods for finding probability distributions. In order to contribute to the development in this field, a methodology was developed to elicit the parameters of the logistic regression with a single covariate. The proposed method requires to determite the levels of the covarible, at each level a binomial distribution is assumed and the parameter of interest is elicited by using the indirect method hypothetical samples.  

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