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A new tool for failure analysis in small firms: frontiers of financial ratios based on percentile differences (PDFR)

  • María T. Tascón [1] ; Francisco J. Castaño [1] ; Paula Castro [1]
    1. [1] Universidad de León

      Universidad de León

      León, España

  • Localización: Revista española de financiación y contabilidad, ISSN 0210-2412, Vol. 47, Nº 4, 2018, págs. 433-463
  • Idioma: inglés
  • DOI: 10.1080/02102412.2018.1468058
  • Títulos paralelos:
    • Una nueva herramienta para análisis de fracaso en empresas pequeñas: fronteras de ratios financieras basadas en diferencias de percentiles (PDFR)
  • Enlaces
  • Resumen
    • español

      Este documento propone una metodología innovadora que usa diferencias entre percentiles para calcular puntuaciones y distancias al fracaso de empresas o grupos de empresas. Se basa en las diferencias significativas entre el grupo de empresas fracasadas y la población a la que ese grupo pertenece (mismo sector, periodo y zona geográfica seleccionados) y elimina los efectos de la correlación entre los factores empleados para calcular las puntuaciones. El uso de ratios contables, que pueden calcularse con los datos disponibles en los estados financieros obligatorios, y la homogeneización de estas variables mediante el cálculo de percentiles, hacen del PDFR una herramienta especialmente orientada a las PyMEs. Nuestros resultados para la selección de las variables más discriminantes son consistentes con los obtenidos en estudios previos, y las tasas de acierto de empresas fracasadas y no fracasadas son mejores que las de metodologías tradicionales usadas habitualmente. Además, la metodología propuesta permite calcular distancias al fracaso tanto de empresas individuales como de grupos de empresas. Finalmente, esta metodología identifica cuáles de los inductores financieros utilizados muestran fortalezas o debilidades de la empresa o grupo de empresas, a efectos de una potencial reorganización.

    • English

      This paper proposes an innovative methodology based on the use of differences between percentiles to compute the scores and distances to failure of a specific firm or group of firms. This approach is based on significant differences between the group of failed firms and the population to which the failed firms belong (meaning the same industry, period and geographical zone selected) and eliminates the effects of correlation between the factors selected to compute the scores. The use of accounting ratios, which can be computed using data available in the mandatory financial statements, and the homogenisation of these variables using percentiles make percentile difference frontier of ratios a tool specially oriented to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Our results for the selection of the most discriminant variables are consistent with those of previous studies, and the hit rates of failed and non-failed firms outperform those of the commonly used traditional methodologies. In addition, the proposed methodology enables us to compute distances to failure of both individual firms and groups of firms. Finally, this methodology identifies which of the financial drivers used are strengths or weaknesses for the specific firm or group of firms under study for purposes of a potential reorganisation.

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