Resumen de Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices

Josep Xavier Barber Valles , David Valentín Conesa Guillén , Antonio López Quílez , María Asunción Martínez Mayoral , Javier Morales Socuéllamos , Antoni Barber

• A methodological approach for modelling the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices is proposed in this paper. The value of the bioclimatic index is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates both structured and unstructured random effects. Selection of prior distributions is also discussed in order to better incorporate any possible prior knowledge about the parameters that could refer to the particular characteristics of bioclimatic indices. MCMC methods and distributed programming are used to obtain an approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters and also the posterior predictive distribution of the indices. One main outcome of the proposal is the spatial bioclimatic probability distribution of each bioclimatic index, which allows researchers to obtain the probability of each location belonging to different bioclimates. The methodology is evaluated on two indices in the Island of Cyprus.