Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts

• Autores: Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David B. Lobell, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath
• Localización: The Review of economics and statistics, ISSN 0034-6535, Vol. 97, Nº 2, 2015, págs. 461-471
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00478
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• Resumen

  • Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much larger range of projected climate impacts and a greater likelihood of worst-case outcomes, an important policy parameter. Incorporating climate uncertainty into future economic impact assessments will be critical for providing the best possible information on potential impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]