Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. Industrial production cycles

• Autores: Yongsung Chang, Sunoong Hwang
• Localización: The Review of economics and statistics, ISSN 0034-6535, Vol. 97, Nº 1, 2015, págs. 116-133
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00436
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• Resumen

  • We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]