Demanda por servicios turísticos: análisis de su evolución en un modelo autoorganizado

• Autores: Silvia London, Juan Gabriel Brida, Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera
• Localización: Estudios Económicos: Argentina, ISSN 0425-368X, ISSN-e 2525-1295, Vol. 24, Nº. 48, 2007, págs. 39-56
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.52292/j.estudecon.2007.812
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen
  • español

    La dinámica de turistas y residentes se puede modelar en diversas maneras y, en la mayoría de tales modelaciones los destinos turísticos se comportan como sistemas complejos de desarrollo dinámico. En este trabajo representamos un modelo donde la afluencia de turistas a un lugar especifico depende del "estado" del lugar (infraestructura, mantenimiento, condiciones ambientales etc.) que a su vez depende de las decisiones conductuales individuales, influenciados por al conducta de los demás agentes. Introducimos un modelo autoorganizado para representar la interacción entre recursos naturales, residentes, turistas y autoridades locales para analizar la evolución de un destino turístico. Debido a la complejidad del modelo utilizamos análisis computacional. Dependiendo de los niveles de los parámetros del sistema podemos detectar la posibilidad de un turismo de masas (y de un efecto de congestión que es negativo hacia el medioambiente) o la sustentabilidad de la destinación. Mostramos que cuando las preferencias de los turistas y/o de residentes inducen la depredación de los recursos naturales, las autoridades locales no pueden revertir el daño causado invirtiendo en preservación; por lo que se deben intentar cambiar el tipo depredador de los agentes. El modelo también muestra que, cuando todos los participantes son cooperativos o pro-ambientalistas la calidad ambiental mejora y la demanda turística aumenta en forma sostenible, induciendo, alternadamente un aumento en el bienestar social de la región.

  • English

    The dynamics of tourists and guests can be modeled in a varied of ways and, in most of this models tourist destinations behave as dynamic evolving complex systems. In this paper we represent an economic problem in which the affluence of tourists to a specific place depends on the "state" of the place (infrastructure, maintenance, ambiance's conditions, etc) that in turn depends on the individuals decisions on these parameters, that are influenced by the behaviour of the other agents. We introduce a model of the interactions between natural resources, residents, tourists and authorities in the self-organized kind of evolution of a tourist destination. The model, starting up from simple components can produce very complex behaviours. Because of the complexity of the model a computational analysis is required. We show that the model can reproduce several meaningful situations. Depending on the levels of the system parameters we can detect the possibility of mass tourism (and a negative crowding effect on environment) or sustainable management of the destination. We show that when preferences of tourists and/or residents induce the depredation of the natural resources and disdain for the environmental quality of the egion, the authorities cannot reverse the negative behaviour of the agents by investing on preservation; they have to punish non cooperative agents. The model also shows that, when all the participants are cooperative, the environmental quality improves and tourism demand increases, inducing, in turn an increase in welfare.

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