The Bayesian approach to the combination of forecasts: some extensions into a skewed environment
- Autores: Gerrit K. Janssens
- Localización: Trabajos de estadística, ISSN 0213-8190, Vol. 2, Nº. 2, 1987, págs. 103-113
- Idioma: inglés
- DOI: 10.1007/bf02863596
- Títulos paralelos:
- Un enfoque bayesiano sobre la combinación de predicciones: extensiones en ambiente asimétrico
- Enlaces
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Resumen
Where a decision-maker has to rely on expert opinions a need for a normative model to combine these forecasts appears. This can be done using Bayes' formula and by making some assumptions on the prior distribution and the distribution of the expert assessments. We extend the case to skewed distributions of these assessments. By using an Edgeworth expansion of the density function including the skewness parameter, we are able to obtain the formula to combine the forecasts in a Bayesian way
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