Dynamic Analysis of a Phase Transition Model for Tropical Locust

• Hongling Cui ^[1] ; Yongzhen Pei ^[1] ; Changguo Li ^[2]
  1. [1] Tiangong University
  2. [2] Engineering University of the Joint Logistics Support Force
• Localización: Qualitative theory of dynamical systems, ISSN 1575-5460, Vol. 25, Nº 1, 2026
• Idioma: inglés
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen

  • Locust plagues represent a significant historical natural disaster, impacting agriculture, livestock, the environment, and the economy. The aggregation pheromone 4-vinylanisole (4VA) is pivotal in the transition of locusts from solitary to gregarious phases, facilitating the formation of large-scale swarms. This study introduces a novel mathematical model aimed at elucidating the dynamics governing the phase transition observed in locusts. The rate of transition from a solitary to a gregarious state, induced by 4VA, is determined through the fitting of experimental data. Detailed dynamic analysis reveals that excessively rapid transitions can lead to the extinction of solitary locusts. Furthermore, the influence of avian predation on locust populations is examined, employing bifurcation analysis to identify transcritical and saddle-node bifurcations in the system. Two critical thresholds are established with respect to predation intensity. Increasing predation pressure induces significant changes in the dynamical behavior of the system, altering equilibria and stability. Notably, enhanced predation moderately reduces the density of gregarious locust populations. Three distinct approaches to controlling locust infestations are examined: focusing exclusively on solitary locusts, targeting gregarious populations and the synergistic control. The impacts of varying control intensities in these strategies on locust populations are analyzed and discussed. In particular, the relationship between control efficiency and intensity is non-linear when targeting individual gregarious types. Numerical simulations reveal an optimal control intensity for gregarious locusts. Moreover, single control methods are insufficient to eradicate locust populations; only a synergistic approach can achieve population extinction. These findings provide a theoretical foundation for devising effective locust management strategies

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