A digital twin prototype of the 2021 La Palma eruption based on data-driven modeling of magma chamber pressure evolution

• Manuel B. de Pablo ^[1] ; María Charco ^[1] ; Pablo J. González ^[2] ; José Luis G. Pallero ^[3]
  1. [1] Instituto de Geociencias

     Instituto de Geociencias

     Madrid, España

     
  2. [2] Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

     Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

     Madrid, España

     
  3. [3] Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

     Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

     Madrid, España

     

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• Localización: Cosmológica, ISSN 2792-7423, Nº. Extra 1 (Conferencia Internacional: Erupción del Tajogaite (Los Llanos de Aridane, noviembre de 2025)), 2025, págs. 239-240
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • The 2021 eruption of Cumbre Vieja on La Palma provides a unique opportunity to explore the use of data-driven methods in real-time understanding and forecasting of volcanic activity. Here, we present a digital twin prototype of this eruption. The model is designed to assimilate observational data simulating and forecasting the evolution of pressure change within the magma reservoir throughout the eruption. A central insight of this work is the strong empirical relationship between GNSS-derived ground displacements and the cumulative volume of erupted magma. Despite both variables exhibiting exponential trends, their correlation appears approximately linear during the course of the eruption (Charco et al., 2024). This observation motivates a minimal conceptual model in which pressure loss in a magma reservoir drives both surface deformation and eruptive flux. The model’s simplicity allows for efficient data assimilation and opens the possibility of real-time forecasting of eruption duration. The digital twin prototype operates within the framework of data-driven modeling, continuously integrating time series of GNSS displacement data and estimates of erupted magma volume. Data assimilation is performed using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) algorithm (Evensen, 2003), which updates internal model states and parameters in response to new observations, enabling improved tracking of the eruption’s internal dynamics (Fig. 1). Notably, the framework is able to estimate, from early eruption data, the likely total erupted volume and approximate duration of the event...

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • CHARCO, M., P. J. GONZÁLEZ, J. L. G. PALLERO, L. GARCÍA CAÑADA, C. DEL FRESNO & A. RODRÍGUEZ ORTEGA (2024). The 2021 La Palma (Canary...
  • EVENSEN, G. (2003). The Ensemble Kalman Filter: theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dynamics, 53, 343-367.