Eruption ending forecast through magma pressure drop: La Palma, 2021

• María Charco ^[1] ; Pablo J. González ^[4] ; José Luis García Pallero ^[2] ; Laura García-Cañada ^[3] ; Carmen del Fresno ^[3]
  1. [1] Instituto de Geociencias

     Instituto de Geociencias

     Madrid, España

     
  2. [2] Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

     Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

     Madrid, España

     
  3. [3] Instituto Geográfico Nacional

     Instituto Geográfico Nacional

     Madrid, España

     
  4. [4] Estación Volcanológica de Canarias

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• Localización: Cosmológica, ISSN 2792-7423, Nº. Extra 1 (Conferencia Internacional: Erupción del Tajogaite (Los Llanos de Aridane, noviembre de 2025)), 2025, págs. 151-152
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Forecasting the end of volcanic eruptions is one of the major challenges in volcanology, yet it has been scarcely addressed in the literature despite its crucial role in risk mitigation. The 2021 eruption of Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Canary Islands) —the largest in over 50 years— lasted 85 days and 9 hours, caused significant damage, and highlighted the need for improved forecasting tools. In this study, we used continuous GNSS deformation data to assess the temporal evolution of the magmatic reservoir, located near the Moho discontinuity, and its associated pressure drop. Under the assumption of a closed magmatic system and pressure decay controlling the eruption, a model estimated its end date within 86 ± 7 days, achieving a realistic prediction well before its halfway point. Although the lack of a priori constraints on reservoir overpressure limited its operational usefulness, retrospective analysis confirmed that pressure loss governed the eruption’s duration via mass conservation dynamics (Fig. 1). Nevertheless, the model should consider a detectable offset in the GNSS time series. This offset temporally correlates with a change of lava effusion rate and some additional geophysical and geochemical changes occurred around this time. These results demonstrate that a combined near real-time geodetic, lava effusion rates and geochemical and geophysical monitoring can enable credible forecasts for an eruption duration for basaltic Strombolian eruptions in La Palma (Charco et al., 2024). This approach could have potential applicability to other volcanoes of the Canary Islands and other volcanoes worldwide.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • CHARCO, M., P. J. GONZÁLEZ, J. L. G. PALLERO, L. GARCÍA-CAÑADA, C. DEL FRESNO & A. RODRÍGUEZ-ORTEGA (2024). The 2021 La Palma (Canary...