Abstract
Multi-strain infectious diseases, which are usually prevented from spreading widely by vaccination, have two main transmission mechanisms: competitive exclusion and co-existence. In this paper, a stochastic multi-strain coinfection model with amplification and vaccination is developed. For the deterministic model, the basic reproduction number \(R_0\) and fixed points are provided. For the stochastic model, we first prove the existence and uniqueness of the positive solution under any initial value. Then, a portion of those infected with the common strain will always become patients with the amplified strain, which increases the risk of death from the disease. Therefore, we verified that patients with common strains would become extinct if \(R_1^s<1\). Furthermore, by constructing the Lyapunov function, we find that model (3) has a unique ergodic stationary distribution if \(R_0^S>1\). Particularly, we get a concrete form of the probability density of the distribution \(\kappa (\cdot )\) near equilibrium \(E^*\), where \(E^*\) is the quasi-local equilibrium of the stochastic model. Finally, the results are verified by numerical simulation. The results show that vaccination can control disease outbreaks or even eliminate them.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 12271421, 12371504) and the Shaanxi Province Innovation Talent Promotion Plan Project (Grant No: 2023KJXX-056)
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Appendix
Appendix
For the same dimensional symmetric matrices \(Q_1\) and \(Q_2\), we have
\(Q_1\succ 0\): \(Q_1\) is a positive definite matrix,
\(Q_1\succeq 0\): \(Q_1\) is a positive semi-definite matrix,
\(Q_1\succeq Q_2\): \(Q_1-Q_2\) is at least a positive semi-definite matrix.
Moreover, for any invertible matrix Q, it is found that \(Q\Sigma Q^{T}\succ 0\) if \(\Sigma \succ 0\). Furthermore, define \(\Sigma _j\) as the solutions of the following algebraic equations
where
Consider the algebraic equation
which the related proof can be divided into two conditions:
Case 1. If \((\aleph _1)\) is satisfied, an intuitive calculation shows that
The characteristic polynomial of \(\mathcal {A}\) is that \(\varphi _\mathcal {A}(\lambda )=(\lambda -a_{11})(\lambda I_4-\mathcal {H}_1)\), where \(\mathcal {H}_1=(a_{ij})_{\{2\le i,j\le 4\}}\) is the matrix. Obviously, \(\mathcal {A}\) has one of the eigenvalue \(\lambda =a_{11}\). Based on the Theorem 2.1, we know that \(a_{11}>0\), which implies that \(\vartheta _{11}\succeq 0\) and
Case 2. If \((\hbar _1)\) is satisfied, \(a_{21}\ne 0\), or \(a_{31}\ne 0\), or \(a_{41}\ne 0\) can be obtained. We must illustrate that the elements \(a_{j1}~(j = 2, 3, 4,)\) have the equivalent status in \(\mathcal {A}\).
Define the invertible matrices \(\mathcal {J}_1\) and \(\mathcal {J}_2\) as follows
which satisfies \(\dot{\mathcal {A}}=\mathcal {J}_1\mathcal {A}\mathcal {J}_1^{-1}\), \(\ddot{\mathcal {A}}=\mathcal {J}_2\mathcal {A}\mathcal {J}_2^{-1}\), \(\dot{\Sigma _1}=\mathcal {J}_1\Sigma _1\mathcal {J}_1^T\) and \(\ddot{\Sigma _1}=\mathcal {J}_2\Sigma _1\mathcal {J}_2^T\).
Then (28) can be equivalently expressed as
Now, we can find that \(\Sigma _1\), \(\dot{\Sigma _1}\) and \(\ddot{\Sigma _1}\) not only have the same positive definiteness, but also they are Hurwitz matrix. Additionally, we can obtain that \(\dot{a_{21}}=a_{31}\) and \(\ddot{a_{21}}=a_{41}\). Therefore, we only consider the condition of \(a_{21}\ne 0\).
Let \(\mathcal {B}=\mathcal {J}_3\mathcal {A}\mathcal {J}_3^{-1}\), where the elimination matrix \(\mathcal {J}_3\) is given by
By calculation, we denote
There is \(b_{21}=a_{21}\ne 0\), equation (28) can be rewritten as:
Next, the parameters \((b_{32}, b_{42})\) are similarly considered for two conditions:
Case 2.1 If \((\aleph _2)\) is satisfied, by direct computation
where O is zero matrix and \(\mathcal {H}_2=(\varsigma _{ij})_{2\times 2}\) is the symmetric matric, where
It is easy to obtain the characteristic polynomial of \(\mathcal {A}\):
where \(\mathcal {H}_4=(b_{ij})_{\{3\le i,j\le 4\}}\) is the matrix. Because of the \(\mathcal {A}\) is a Hurwtiz matrix, all of the roots of the equation \(\lambda ^2-(b_{11}+b_{22})\lambda +(b_{11}b_{22}-b_{12}b_{21})=0\) have negative real part. Moreover, we have \(b_{11}+b_{22}<0\) and \(b_{11}b_{22}-b_{12}b_{21}>0\). Since \(b_{21}\ne 0\), we have
which shows that \(\mathcal {H}_2\succ 0\) and \(\mathcal {J}_3\Sigma _1\mathcal {J}_3^T\succeq 0\).
Define two positive semi-definite matrices \(\vartheta _{12}\) and \(\tilde{\vartheta _{12}}\) by
We have
Through \(\vartheta _{12}\succeq 0\), it can be obtained that \(\mathcal {J}_3^{-1}\tilde{\vartheta _{12}}(\mathcal {J}_3^{-1})^T\succeq 0\) and
Case 2.2 If \((\hbar _2)\) is satisfied, Similar to Case 2, we have \(b_{32}\ne 0\) or \(b_{42}\ne 0\) and the elements \(b_{m2}~(m=3,4)\) have the equivalent status in \(\mathcal {B}\). Therefore, we only consider the condition of \(b_{32}\ne 0\).
Define the invertible matrices \(\mathcal {J}_4\) as follows
which satisfies \(\hat{\mathcal {B}}=\mathcal {J}_4\mathcal {B}\mathcal {J}_4^{-1}\) and \(\hat{\Sigma _1}=\mathcal {J}_4\Sigma _1\mathcal {J}_4^T\). That is, (30) also can be rewritten as \(\mathcal {J}_4\mathcal {N}_1\mathcal {J}_4^T+\hat{\mathcal {B}}\hat{\Sigma _1}+\hat{\Sigma _1}\hat{\mathcal {B}}^T=0\).
Let \(\mathcal {C}=\mathcal {J}_5\mathcal {B}\mathcal {J}_5^{-1}\), where \(\mathcal {J}_2\) is called the second elimination metric
By calculation, it can be denoted
We have \(c_{21}=b_{21}=a_{21}(\ne 0)\) and \(c_{32}=b_{32}(\ne 0)\). Equations (30) or (28) can be rewritten as:
Next, the parameter \(c_{43}\) is similarly considered for two conditions:
Case 2.2.1 If \((\hbar _3)\) is satisfied, let \(\mathcal {D}=\mathcal {J}_6\mathcal {C}\mathcal {J}_6^T\), where the standardized transformation matrix
where
By calculation, it can be obtained
where \(\varphi _1, \varphi _2, \varphi _3, \varphi _4\) are the same as above. Furthermore, equation (32) can be rewritten as:
Moreover, using the Lemma 2.2, we can obtain that the matrix \(\Sigma _1\) is positive definite whose explicit form is
Compared the \(\mathcal {N}_1^2+\mathcal {D}\Sigma _1+\Sigma _1\mathcal {D}^T=0\), we have \(\Sigma _1=\Xi ^{-2}(\mathcal {J}_6\mathcal {J}_5\mathcal {J}_3)\Sigma _1(\mathcal {J}_6\mathcal {J}_5\mathcal {J}_3)^T\), where \(\Xi =d_{11}\sigma _1\). Thus, the matrix \(\Sigma _1=\Xi ^{-2}(\mathcal {J}_6\mathcal {J}_5\mathcal {J}_3)^{-1}\Sigma _1((\mathcal {J}_6\mathcal {J}_5\mathcal {J}_3)^{-1})^T\) is at least a semi-positive matrix.
Case 2.2.2 If \((\aleph _3)\) is satisfied, then the characteristic polynomial of \(\mathcal {C}\) is
where
Using Theorem 1 and \(\mathcal {A}\) is a Hurwitz matrix, the solution of equation \(\lambda ^3+\xi _1\lambda ^2+\xi _2\lambda +\xi _3=0\) have roots with all negative real components, that is
Let \(\mathcal {D}=\mathcal {J}_7\mathcal {C}\mathcal {J}_7^{-1}\) and using the Lemma 2.3, where the standardized transformation matrix \(\mathcal {J}_7\)
By calculation, we have
where
Then, the equation (32) can be rewritten as
where the \(\Sigma _1\) is shown as
Compared the \(\mathcal {N}_1^2+\mathcal {D}\tilde{\Sigma _1}+\tilde{\Sigma _1}\mathcal {D}^T=0\), we have \(\tilde{\Sigma _1}=\Xi ^{-2}(\mathcal {J}_7\mathcal {J}_5\mathcal {J}_3)\Sigma _1 (\mathcal {J}_7\mathcal {J}_5\mathcal {J}_3)^T\), where \(\Xi =c_{21}c_{32}\sigma _1\). Thus, the matrix \(\Sigma _1=\Xi ^{-2}(\mathcal {J}_7\mathcal {J}_5\mathcal {J}_3)^{-1}\tilde{\Sigma _1}((\mathcal {J}_7 \mathcal {J}_5\mathcal {J}_3)^{-1})^T\) is at least a semi-positive matrix.
For \(\mathcal {N}_i~(i=2,3,4)\), its approach is similar to that of \(\mathcal {N}_1\). Therefore, we ignore it here. The proof is complete.
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Niu, L., Chen, Q. & Teng, Z. Threshold Dynamics and Probability Density Function of a Stochastic Multi-Strain Coinfection Model with Amplification and Vaccination. Qual. Theory Dyn. Syst. 23, 94 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12346-024-00957-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12346-024-00957-6