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Maximizing performance with an eye on the finances: a chance-constrained model for football transfer market decisions

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Abstract

Composing a team of professional players is among the most crucial decisions in association football. Nevertheless, transfer market decisions are often based on myopic objectives and are questionable from a financial point of view. This paper introduces a chance-constrained model to provide analytic support to club managers during transfer windows. The model seeks a top-performing team while adapting to different budgets and financial-risk profiles. In addition, it provides a new rating system that is able to numerically reflect the on-field performance of football players and thus contribute to an objective assessment of football players. The model and rating system are tested on a case study based on real market data. The data from the case study are available online for the benefit of future research.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank two anonymous reviewers, whose comments helped to improve the contents and presentation of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark

    G. Pantuso

  2. Faculty of Logistics, Molde University College, Britvegen 2, 6410, Molde, Norway

    L. M. Hvattum

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  1. G. Pantuso
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  2. L. M. Hvattum
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Correspondence to G. Pantuso.

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Sensitivity to the formation

Sensitivity to the formation

Figure 11 illustrates that solutions to model (1) are not sensitive to the formation, and thus, the discussion in Sect. 5 holds independently of the formation chosen.

Fig. 11
figure 11

Total team rating for different values of \(\alpha\) and for different formations with \(R=1.0\)

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Pantuso, G., Hvattum, L.M. Maximizing performance with an eye on the finances: a chance-constrained model for football transfer market decisions. TOP 29, 583–611 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11750-020-00584-9

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