Predicting Computer Engineering students' dropout in Cuban Higher Education with pre-enrollment and early performance data

• Niurys Lázaro Alvarez ^[2] ; Zoraida Callejas ^[2] ; David Griol ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad de Granada

     Universidad de Granada

     Granada, España

     
  2. [2] 1Universidad de las Ciencias Informáticas (Cuba)
• Localización: JOTSE, ISSN-e 2013-6374, Vol. 10, Nº. 2, 2020, págs. 241-258
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.3926/jotse.922
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Dialnet Métricas: 3 Citas
• Resumen

  • We present an educational data analytics case study aimed at the early detection of potential dropout in Computer Engineering studies in Cuba. We have employed institutional data of 456 students and performed several experiments for predicting their permanency into three (promotion, repetition, and dropout) or two classes (promoting, not promoting). We have also tested a combination of classification features for training and testing decision trees and neural networks; including information obtained at the time of enrollment, after the first semester and after the first academic year. Our results show a considerable accuracy using all features (96.71%). Using only the features available at the time of enrolment and after the first semester we obtain very positive results (68.86% and 93.85% accuracy respectively) with a high recall of non-promoting students. Thus, it is possible to obtain an early assessment of the risk of dropout that can help defining prevention policies.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Ahmed, N., Kloot, B., & Collier-Reed, B.I. (2015). Why students leave engineering and built environment programmes when they are academically...
  • Alkan, N. (2014). Humor, Loneliness and Acceptance: Predictors of University Drop-out Intentions. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences,...
  • Allen, J., Robbins, S.B., Casillas, A., & Oh, I.S. (2008). Third-year college retention and transfer: Effects of academic performance,...
  • Alzen, J.L., Langdon, L.S., & Otero, V.K. (2018). A logistic regression investigation of the relationship between the Learning Assistant...
  • Amaya, Y., Barrientos, E., & Heredia, D. (2015). Student Dropout Predictive Model Using Data Mining Techniques. IEEE Latin American Transactions,...
  • Araque, F., Roldán, C., & Salguero, A. (2009). Factors influencing university drop out rates. Computers & Education, 53(3), 563-574....
  • Badr, G., Algobail, A., Almutairi, H., & Almutery, M. (2016). Predicting Students ’ Performance in University Courses: A Case Study and...
  • Baradwaj, B.K., & Pal, S. (2011). Mining Educational Data to Analyze Students’ Performance. International Journal of Advanced Computer...
  • Barra, C., & Zotti, R. (2017). What we can learn from the use of student data in efficiency analysis within the context of higher education?...
  • Bean, J.P. (1980). Dropouts and turnover: The synthesis and test of a causal model of student attrition. Research in Higher Education, 12(2),...
  • Braxton, J., & Hirschy, A.S. (2005). Theoretical Developments in College Student Departure. In College Student Retention: Formula for...
  • Burgos, C., Campanario, M.L., Pena, D. de la, Lara, J.A., Lizcano, D., & Martinez, M.A. (2018). Data mining for modeling students’ performance:...
  • Cabrera, A.F., Nora, A., Terenzini, P.T., Pascarella, E., & Hagedorn, L.S. (1999). Campus Racial Climate and the Adjustment of Students...
  • Canedo, E.D., Santos, G.A., & Leite, L.L. (2018). An Assessment of the Teaching-Learning Methodologies Used in the Introductory Programming...
  • Chies, L., Graziosi, G., & Pauli, F. (2014). Job Opportunities and Academic Dropout: The Case of the University of Trieste. Procedia Economics...
  • Chung, J.Y., & Lee, S. (2019). Dropout early warning systems for high school students using machine learning. Children and Youth Services...
  • Costa, F.J.D, Bispo, M.D.S., & Pereira, R.D.C.D.F. (2018). Dropout and retention of undergraduate students in management: A study at a...
  • Costa, E.B., Fonseca, B., Santana, M.A., & de Araújo, F.F. (2017). Evaluating the effectiveness of educational data mining techniques...
  • Delgado, B., María, J., & Quijada-González, M. (2012). Los sistemas de acceso, normativas de permanencia, y estrategias de tutoría y retención...
  • Donoso, S., & Schiefelbein, E. (2007). Análisis de los modelos explicativos de retención de estudiantes en la Universidad: Una visión...
  • Dužević, I. (2015). A conceptual framework for analysing the impact of influences on student engagement and learning. Tertiary Education and...
  • Elster, D. (2014). First-Year Students’ Priorities and Choices in STEM Studies–IRIS Findings from Germany and Austria. Science Education International,...
  • Ethington, C.A. (1990). A psychologycal model of student persistence. Research in Higher Education, 31(3), 266-269. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992313
  • Fonseca, G., & García, F. (2016). Permanencia y abandono de estudios en estudiantes universitarios: Un análisis desde la teoría organizacional....
  • Freeman, T.M., Anderman, L.H., & Jensen, J.M. (2007). Sense of belonging in college freshmen at the classroom and campus levels. The Journal...
  • Graffigna, A.M., Hidalgo, L., Jofré, A., Berenguer, M.D.C., Moyano, A., & Esteybar, I. (2014). Tutorial Practice as a Strategy of Retention...
  • Gregori, P., Martínez, V., & Moyano-Fernández, J.J. (2018). Basic actions to reduce dropout rates in distance learning. Evaluation and...
  • Hausmann, L.R., Schofield, J.W., & Woods, R.L. (2008). Sense of belonging as a predictor of intentions to persist among African American...
  • IESALC-UNESCO (2007). Informe sobre la Educación Superior en América Latina y el Caribe 2000-2005. Instituto Internacional de la UNESCO para...
  • Itzhaki, Y., Itzhaky, H., & Yablon, Y.B. (2018). The contribution of parental and societal conditional regard to adjustment of high school...
  • Kerby, M.B. (2015). Toward a New Predictive Model of Student Retention in Higher Education. Journal of College Student Retention: Research,...
  • Kori, K., Pedaste, M., Niitsoo, M., Kuusik, R., Altin, H., Tõnisson, E. et al. (2015). Why do Students Choose to Study Information and Communications...
  • Lacave, C., Molina, A.I., & Cruz-Lemus, J.A. (2018). Learning Analytics to identify dropout factors of Computer Science studies through...
  • Lansford, J.E., Dodge, K.A., Pettit, G.S., & Bates, J.E. (2016). A Public Health Perspective on School Dropout and Adult Outcomes: A Prospective...
  • Lázaro, N., Callejas, Z., & Griol, D. (2017). La deserción estudiantil en educación superior: S.O.S. en carreras de Ingeniería Informática....
  • López, I., Marín, G., & García, M.E. (2012). Deserción escolar en el primer año de la carrera de Medicina. Revista de Educación Médica...
  • López, S., Carpeño, A., Arriaga, J., & Ruiz, M. (2016). Experiencias para el Fomento de las Vocaciones Tecnológicas entre Estudiantes...
  • Lotkowski, V.A., Robbins, S.B., & Noeth, R.J. (2004). The Role of Academic and Non-Academic Factors in Improving College Retention. ACT...
  • Migali, G., & Zucchelli, E. (2017). Personality traits, forgone health care and high school dropout: Evidence from US adolescents. Journal...
  • Miranda, M.A., & Guzmán, J. (2017). Análisis de la deserción de estudiantes universitarios usando técnicas de minería de datos. Formacion...
  • Mohamed, M.H., & Waguih, H.M. (2018). A proposed academic advisor model based on data mining classification techniques. International...
  • Munizaga-Mellado, F R., Cifuentes-Orellana, M.B., & Beltrán-Gabrie, A.J. (2018). Retención y Abandono Estudiantil en la Educación Superior...
  • Mussida, C., Sciulli, D., & Signorelli, M. (2018). Secondary school dropout and work outcomes in ten developing countries. Journal of...
  • Nagy, M., & Molontay, R. (2018). Predicting Dropout in Higher Education based on Secondary School Performance. 2018 IEEE 22nd International...
  • Nandeshwar, A., Menzies, T., & Nelson, A. (2011). Learning patterns of university student retention. Expert Systems with Applications,...
  • Paimin, A.N., Prpic, J.K., Hadgraft, R.G., & Alias, M. (2017). Understanding student’s learning experiences in higher education. Proceedings...
  • Pascarella, E.T., & Terenzini, P.T. (1980). Predicting Freshman Persistence and Voluntary Dropout Decisions from a Theoretical Model....
  • Peña-Calvo, J.V., Inda-Caro, M., Rodríguez-Menéndez, C., & Fernández-García, C. (2016). Perceived Supports and Barriers for Career Development...
  • Pernas-Gómez, M., Sierra-Figueredo, S., Fernández-Sacasas, J.A., Miralles-Aguilera, E., & Diego-Cobelo, J.M. (2009). Principios estratégicos...
  • Pritchard, M.E., & Wilson, G.S. (2003). Using emotional and social factors to predict student success. Journal of College Student Development,...
  • Ramsdal, G., Gurgens, R., & Wynn, R. (2013). Dropout and early unemployment. International Journal of Educational Research, 62, 75-86....
  • Reason, R.D. (2003). Student variables that predict retention: Recent research and new developments. Naspa Journal, 4(40), 598-616. https://doi.org/10.2202/0027-6014.1286
  • Robbins, S.B., Allen, J., Casillas, A., Peterson, C.H., & Lee, H. (2006). Unraveling the differential effects of motivational and skills,...
  • Robison, S., Jaggers, J., Rhodes, J., Blackmon, B.J., & Church, W. (2017). Correlates of educational success: Predictors of school dropout...
  • Rodríguez-Gómez, D., Feixas, M., Gairín, J., & Muñoz, J.L. (2012). Understanding Catalan University Dropout from a Comparative Approach....
  • Spady, W.G. (1970). Dropouts from Higher Education: An Interdisciplinary Review and Synthesis. Interchange, 1(1), 64-85. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02214313
  • Suárez-Montes, N., & Díaz-Subieta, L.B. (2015). Estrés académico, deserción y estrategias de retención de estudiantes en la educación...
  • Teixeira de Mello, S.P., de Melo, P.A., & de Mello Filho, R.T. (2015). Study of the Dropout in Technological Education in a Higher Education...
  • Tinto, V. (1975). Dropout from Higher Education: A Theoretical Synthesis of Recent Research. Review of Educational Research Winter, 45(1),...
  • Tinto, V. (1982). Defining dropout: A matter of perspective. New Directions for Institutional Research, 1982(36), 3-15. https://doi.org/10.1002/ir.37019823603
  • Tinto, V. (2010). From theory to action: Exploring the institutional conditions for student retention. Higher education: Handbook of theory...
  • Ullah, M.A., Alam, M.M., Mahiuddin, Md., & Rahman, M.M. (2019). Predicting Factors of Students Dissatisfaction for Retention. In Abraham,...
  • United Nations (2015). Transforming our world: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (A/RES/70/1). United Nations. Available at: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld
  • Vila, D., Cisneros, S., Granda, P., & Ortega, C. (2019). Detection of Desertion Patterns in University Students Using Data Mining Techniques:...
  • Villanueva, E., Bentancur, N., Lacerda, M. de, & González, M.D. (2008). Reformas de la educación superior: 25 propuestas para la educación...
  • Villwock, R., Appio, A., & Andreta, A.A. (2015). Educational Data Mining with Focus on Dropout Rates. IJCSNS International Journal of...
  • Williams, B., Wankat, P.C., & Neto, P. (2018). Not so global: A bibliometric look at engineering education research. European Journal...
  • Zając, T.Z., & Komendant-Brodowska, A. (2018). Premeditated, dismissed and disenchanted: Higher education dropouts in Poland. Tertiary...
  • Zehetmeier, D., Axel, B., Bruggemann-Klein, A., Thurner, V., & Schlierkamp, K. (2015). Finding Competence Characteristics among First...