External shocks, internal shots: : The geography of civil conflicts

• Autores: Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier
• Localización: The Review of economics and statistics, ISSN 0034-6535, Vol. 97, Nº 4, 2015, págs. 758-776
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00521
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• Resumen

  • We use georeferenced information on the location of violent events in sub-Saharan African countries and provide evidence that external income shocks are important determinants of the intensity and geography of civil conflicts. More precisely, we find that (a) the incidence, intensity, and onset of conflicts are generally negatively and significantly correlated with income variations at the local level; (b) this relationship is significantly weaker for the most remote locations; and (c) at the country level, these shocks have an insignificant impact on the overall probability of conflict outbreak but do affect the probability that conflicts start in the most opened regions